Christopher Ado’s Del Mar Handicap
Analysis, Selections, and Wagering Strategies for Del Mar
Saturday August 28, 2010
By Christopher Ado
Today’s Action from Del Mar: I will highlight and play races 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8. In addition I will give out a $34 Pick 3 play (Races 4-6)
Race 4: Grade 2 Del Mar Mile Handicap, 1-Mile Turf, Three year olds and upward
BLUE CHAGALL (#1, 7-2) is the co-third choice on the morning line and this French bred gelding is the true definition of a horse of course that has an affinity for this one mile distance on the turf. From four starts over the Del Mar turf course this horse has recorded two victories and from thirteen starts at this one mile distance he has recorded three victories including a convincing length and a quarter victory last time in the Wickeer Stakes the local prep for today’s event. Prior to his victory this Julio Canani trainee had finished off the board in two previous starts where he was beaten a combined sixteenth and a half lengths. He was sent off at odds of 32-1 in the Grade 1 Shoemaker’s Mike where he crossed the wire last in the field of nine in a race where he was clearly overmatched. Despite finishing off the board in three previous starts on a All Weather surface, his connections decided to switch him to the Cushion Track at Hollywood Park on July 15 where he showed vastly improved early speed with addition of blinkers to press the early pace set by One Track Mind and weakened badly through the stretch to cross the wire second to last beaten six lengths in his four consecutive off the board finish on a All Weather surface. He returned to his favorite turf course, removed the blinkers, and drew the coveted rail post position in the Wickeer Stakes and the result was a generous $24 win mutual where he took advantage of a perfect trip en route to a length and a quarter victory. In that race he was allowed to save ground going into the first turn as the leader, Angie Engineer, was allowed to coast on a uncontested early lead through a first quarter in 23.58 seconds and half mile 47.69 seconds. He moved up along the rail going into the far turn, saved ground patiently waiting for room to develop, angled one off the rail into the stretch, kick past the leader, and drove clear to a length and a quarter victory earning the field’s highest last race Performance Rating of 119 (Par Figure 121) in the field. Not only did he earned a competitive speed figure but also covered his final quarter of a mile in snappy fashion covering that ground in a blazing 22.64 seconds earning the field’s second highest last race BRIS late pace figure in the field. He returns from a thirty-one day layoff with crisp work outs over Del Mar’s Poly Track including a five furlong move in 1:01 flat where National Turf’s Andy Harrington stated he appeared “Relaxed and happy with this sharp looking finish, last 1/4 in 23.4. Holds edge well.” Although his win on July 28 was the beneficiary of a perfect trip he should navigate a similar trip from the rail with David Flores back in the irons and solid amount of early speed lined up for his late kick. From the inside to outside Golden Mexico, Scenic Blast, and Enriched have earned close to or exceed the par for BRIS E1 and E2 pace figures and that should allow BLUE CHAGALL to save ground behind this trio of early leaders or pace prompting horses, patiently bide his time around the far turn, get the first jump on Bruce’s Dream, and kick clear en route to his first Graded Stakes victory. With all the attention focused on two morning line favorites, Enriched and Bruce’s Dream, look for a hint of a price on this bay gelding by Testa Rossa as my BEST BET on program.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (1) BLUE CHAGALL to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 3-1 or better)
Main Exactas: 1-6, 1-7. Small reverse for each
Race 5: Maiden Special Weight, 6-½ Furlongs, Three year olds and up
LONE JUSTICE (#8, 8-1) will be making his first start off a fifty day layoff for trainer Jorge Periban who has won only once in nine starts so far this meet. Despite the trainer’s statistics this meet this California bred gelding by Roman Ruler exit’s the three best main track race in this field according to the Handicapper’s Report Performance Ratings, has a versatile running style that will allow this dark bay gelding to sit a good trip just behind the early leaders, and has been training in sharp fashion for his return according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington. He made his first start for his new connections off almost a five month layoff on June 12 and finished third beaten four and half lengths in a highly rated race won by Moon Lark. In that race he settled just off the early leaders in fourth in the two-path, moved up three wide on the far turn and into the stretch, was late changing to his right lead until mid stretch, and was distant third. The race earned an above par Performance Rating of 106 and the validity of that figure was verified when the sixth and seventh-place finisher (Blue Jack Attack and Lyons Barton) came back to win. He returned fourteen days later where he finished fifth beaten twelve and three-quarter lengths but ran into another highly rated event won by the favored gate to wire winner Capital Account. In that race he found himself in a perfect spot stalking dueling leaders on the rail in fourth. He continued saving ground into and around the far turn, was out run, and gave way to finish fifth. The race earned an above par Performance Rating of 114 and was verified when the winner and second-place finisher came back to win their next start. He made his third in only four weeks last time out and affects of that grueling campaign caught up to him as he finished a flat fifth beaten seven lengths by the favorite Blue Jay Attack. In that race he was pushed from the gate and showed improved early speed to press the pace in the two path, continued pressing the pace outside of Don Perico around the far turn, remained in the hunt to mid stretch, and gave way in the final furlong to lose by seven lengths in another productive “key” race. The third-and-sixth place finishers (Don Perico and Valley Cat) came back to win. He has come back with four works over Hollywood Park’s Cushion Track and two of them caught National Turf’s John Wilson attention. He worked five furlongs in 59.3 on August 9 where John Wilson commented he appeared on the “Easy side in this solo drill finishing with something left in reserve for Periban in 35.4, 59.2. Has perked up, it appears.” He concluded his work pattern with a best of twenty-eight five furlong move in 59.2 that John stated he “Appears improved for Periban reaching with spark in 35.0, 59.3 while guided along late. Nice.” He gets rider switch to Mike Smith for the first time and with Crestatore, The Usual One, and Shu Biz Danny all displaying signs of early speed I expect to see LONE JUSTICE sitting just off that trio of early leaders and without the likes of Moon Lark or Capital Account in this field, get first run, and pull off the upset.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (8) LONE JUSTICE to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 6-1 or better)
Main Exactas: 8-2, 8-4, 8-7. Small reverse for each.
Race 6: Allowance N1X, 1-1/16 Miles Turf, Three year olds and up
WHERE’S THE REMOTE (#2, 5-2) is the morning line favorite in his only second start versus open company and is set to deliver his second consecutive win this meet in a race that begins the Guaranteed $750,000 Pick 6. The gray or roan gelding made his first start off a two month layoff on July 24 for his new connections in his first start around two turns and finished second beaten three and quarter lengths by today’s rival Call Me Honcho. Despite this defeat this California bred gelding ran better than the winner when you consider his trip and the track bias. In that race he pressed the early pace from the inside, dropped back into and down the backstretch to stalk the pace on the rail in good position, angled off the rail on the final turn but could not find room and thus dropped back to the rail into the stretch and re-rallied to get second versus the wide rally of the winner Call Me Honcho. The reason this gelding ran a better race than the winner is because he prompted the pace inside versus a main track that strongly favored outside lines over a distance that strongly favors closers making his effort look better than what appears on paper. Although the race earned a below average Performance Rating of 98 the final speed figure was the result of very slow fractions. He returned in fourteen days trying grass for the first time for a sire, Unbrided Native, that connects with 25% of his progeny winning on that surface for the first time and this four-year old ran to his pedigree blitzing his field by three and a half lengths earning par Performance Rating of 108 that is the highest last race in this field. In that race he found the rail going into the first turn and settled in mid pack in the clear, maneuvered into the two path down the backstretch, moved up three wide around the far turn, came five wide into the stretch, quickly blew past the leaders and kick clear earning a BRIS Class Rating of 118 that ties him for the highest last race Class Rating in this field. He covered his final five-sixteenths in a snappy 29.33 seconds earning the field’s second highest last race BRIS late pace figure in the field and should only move forward because he makes his third start into this form cycle. Since that race he has come back with two work outs over Del Mar’s Poly Track including a six furlong move in 1:14.4 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington raved with a B+. In that work out Andy stated he “Breezed with some style with barnmate Zippin E (114.4) in 37.2, 102.2 out in 114.4 to the 7 furlong pole. Continues ascension.” This stalker breaks from beneficiary inside post positions (post two) and should navigate and clean ground saving trip at what could be a honest pace. From the inside to the outside, Carbon Hoofprint, Hughesy, Teafatiller, and Concerto’s Thunder have all showed early speed or have enough gas to prompt the pace ensuring that our top choice gets sufficient amount of early zip for his late kick. Drawn very well with the highest last race Performance Rating over this surface and training well out of his last start makes WHERE’S THE REMOTE my second BEST BET on the card and SINGLE to begin the Guaranteed $750,000 Pick 6.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (2) WHERE’S THE REMOTE (Minimum fair odds of 9-5 or better)
Trifecta part-wheel: 2 over 5, 8, 9 over ALL = $24 for a $1 Wager
Trifecta part-wheel: 2 over 5, 8, 9 over 1, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 10 = $18 for a $1 Wager
Race 7: Maiden Special Weight, 5-½ Furlongs, Two year olds
DIXIE CROSS (#10, 9-2) is my co-top choice with fellow first time starter GOLDEN BOUNTY (#8, 8-1) both will be making their career debut this afternoon in a race where three of the entrants have experience. However none of the three entrants have earned a Performance Rating that equals the par for this class level (Par Figure 96) and that race makes this ripe for a first time starter and this dark bay or brown colt has the winning profile that I look for in a first time starter. He is bred on both sides of his pedigree to win as a two year old, has worked splendidly according to National Turf’s John Wilson, and is trained by John Sadler who has excelled with two year olds so far this meet. This dark bay colt was purchased for $70,000 that was the second highest of nine two year olds sold at the Ocala Breeders Sales this past March and is above the sire’s average of $35,600. His sire, Bandini, has produced 21% with his first time starters. This will be her dam’s first start but her dam, Five Star Holding, was very precocious. She broke her maiden as two year old and was second in the Three Chimney’s Juvenile Stakes all as two year old. He comes into this race with eight consecutive well spaced work outs and National Turf’s John Wilson caught both his August 12 and August 18 work outs and caught his attention rating them with B and B+ respectively. He worked five furlongs in 1:00.4 on August 12 that John stated he appeared to have “Tons left while breezing best over a mate in 48.3, 100.2 galloping out big in 113.1. Nice looking sort,” and returned six days later with a five furlong move from the gate in 59.4 where John stated he was in a “Total breeze in this gate drill with Backstage Dancer appearing to be a nice sort, always held up in 23.2, 47.3, 59.3. Nice all the way.” He capped off a solid five furlong move in 1:00.4 five days ago over Hollywood Park’s Cushion Track. Trainer John Sadler has saddled three two year old winners this meet but more importantly two of them were making their career debut with today’s jockey Joel Rosario in the irons. Contemplated (August 11, $8.80) broke his maiden in his career debut with today’s rider Joel Rosario in the irons for owners Pam and Marty Wygod and Yellow Slicker (August 13, $10) broke her maiden in her debut in a $40,000 maiden claiming event. This information suggest that John Sadler’s debuting two year old maidens are live with Joel Rosario this meet and in the last two weeks this trainer-jockey team have combined to win 25% (4-for-16). This colt is drawn outside to avoid being trapped on the rail is trained by a trainer that excels with debuting two year old maidens with Joel Rosario in the irons, has trained in spectacular fashion according to National Turf’s John Wilson, and bred on both his sire and dam’s side to win as two year old makes DIXIE CROSS the top choice in the only open two-year old maiden event in the Guaranteed Pick 6.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (8) GOLDEN BOUNTY to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 5-1 or better)
Play the (10) DIXIE CROSS to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 4-1 or better)
Main Exactas: 8-7, 8-9, 8-10. No reverse
Main Exactas: 10-7, 10-8, 10-9. No reverse
Race 8: Grade 1 Pacific Classic, 1-¼ Miles, Three year olds and up
BATTLE OF HASTINGS (#1, 10-1) is co-top choice to win this year’s Pacific Classic along with DAKOTA PHONE (#3, 6-1) but the top preference belongs to this son of Royal Applause who is expected to be a generous price come post time. Although this British bred is winless in five starts this year and his trainer, Jeff Mullins, is winless in his first twenty-four starters this meet this gelding has been compromised by the lack of pace or trouble trips this year and his runner-up finish in the Grade 2 San Diego is an indication that this bay gelding is rounding into form and should be set to peak performance in his second start off a brief layoff. He finished fourth beaten less than two lengths in the Grade 1 Turf Classic on Kentucky Derby day at Churchill Downs but was affected by a trouble trip and extremely soft course. In that race he was taken back at the break to trail behind an uncontested leader. He moved up along the inside around the far turn but was badly blocked behind a wall of horses entering stretch and could not find room to run until very late where he split rivals and was out finished. Next he shipped back to Southern California to run in the Grade 1 Whittingham on June 5 at Hollywood Park and crossed the wire fifth beaten two and three-quarter lengths behind the uncontested gate to wire winner Acclimation. However he was badly compromised by the lack of early speed and wide trip when he split the field in that June 5 Grade 1 event. Breaking from post position ten in a ten horse field he was caught three wide into and around the first turn, he could not get over to save ground and was parked four wide down the backstretch. He was able to get over into the two-path around the far turn, maneuvered over to the rail into the stretch, and finished evenly behind the gate to wire winner Acclimation in this better than looked performance. In order to find his form he was freshened for six weeks and returned in the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap trying Del Mar’s Poly Track for the first time and the result was an improved performance losing by a half length giving him a shot in this year’s Pacific Classic. In that race he was squeezed a bit after the start, got over to the rail to save ground and settled off the quick early pace established by Enriched. As the field began to bunch up into and around the far turn he maneuvered into the two path and worked his way through horses, found a clear path entering the stretch four wide split rivals, took over the lead, and was out finished to lose by a half length earning a competitive Performance Rating of 115. He should have sufficient amount of early speed in this ten horse field with Isle of Giant’s and Patrick Valenzuela going straight to the front followed closely by Temple City and The Unusual Q.T. tracking or pressing that long shot leader ensuring honest fractions for this stalker. Although he will be stretching out from mile and a sixteenth to mile and a quarter it should be noted that this bay gelding won the Virginia Derby and was second to The Unusual Q.T at this mile and a quarter distance as a three-year old and ranks second in BRIS Prime Power and third in overall BRIS Class Ratings. He has returned with two work outs over Hollywood Park’s Cushion Track including a five furlong move in 1:00.3 that National Turf’s John Wilson commented he was “Looking fine since last easy home in 36.1, 100.3. Holding course.” Jockey Brice Blanc takes over from the injured Tyler Baze and Joe Talamo ensuring a generous price and BATTLE OF HASTINGS fit’s the profile that goes unnoticed in many Grade 1 races. A beaten favorite at lower class level that moves up in class off a good effort.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (1) BATTLE OF HASTINGS to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 8-1 or better)
Play the (3) DAKOTA PHONE to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 6-1 or better)
Main Exactas: 1-3, 1-6, 1-7, 1-10. No reverse
Main Exactas: 3-1, 3-6, 3-7, 3-10. No reverse
Del Mar Pick 3 Race 4
Race 4: (1) BLUE CHAGALL, (6) Enriched, (7) Bruce’s Dream
Race 5: (2) Crestatorre, (4) The Wollan, (7) Shu Biz Danny, (8) Lone Justice
Race 6: (2) WHERE’S THE REMOTE, (5) Hughesy, (9) Call Me Wonder
Ticket 1: 1 / 1, 4, 7, 8 / 2, 5, 9 = 1 x 4 x 3 x $1 = $12
Ticket 2: 1, 6, 7 / 1, 4, 7, 8 / 2 = 3 x 4 x 1 x $1 = $12
Ticket 3: 1 / ALL / 2 = 1 x 10 x 1 x $1 = $10
Total Wager: $34
