Christopher Ado’s Del Mar Handicap
Selections, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies from Del Mar
Wednesday September 8, 2010 - CLOSING DAY
By Christopher Ado
Today’s Action from Del Mar: I will highlight and play races 3, 5, 6, and 8. In addition I will put in $24 into a Pick 3 (Races 3-5).
Race 3: Allowance N1X-Optional Claiming $40,000, 1-3/8 Miles Turf, Three and up
SCORPION TIME (#5, 7-2) enters this race off a forty-eight day layoff for trainer Michael Machowsky who has won only 8% (1-for-13) of his starters this meet at Del Mar. However he is primed to get his second winner on closing day of this meet as he has placed this grand son of Seattle Slew in a perfect level and could not find a better pace scenario than the one this bay gelding found this afternoon. He faced the morning line favorite Dynamic Range in two previous starts but it was their previous engagement on November 8 at Oak Tree at Santa Anita meeting where they were separated by only a half length and one could argue that this horse ran the best race. In that race he raced closest to the leader Candy Arches but rated nicely behind that leader as he runaway through six furlongs in 1:10.08 and one mile in 1:35.56 seconds. He made his move at the leader around the far turn to take over the lead and opened up a two-length lead at mid stretch only to get caught by the winner Dynamic Range who benefited from this enervating early pace rallying from fourth in perfect spot. SCORPION TIME lost nothing in disgrace earning the field’s co-top highest BRIS Class rating in the field and finishing three lengths in front of the rest of the field in a winning effort in defeat. He was not seen for the rest of the year and for the first six months of 2010 when he returned from a two hundred and fifty-six day layoff on July 22 here at Del Mar and finished a tiring third beaten two lengths at this same class level and distance. A closer inspection of that race reveals he ran another terrific race in defeat. In that race he dueled head and head for the early lead with 21-1 long shot Tiz True through a first quarter 23.53 seconds. He was able to open some separation from that rival as he sped through six furlongs 1:12.46 seconds. He was tackled by the post time favorite Trip Taka around the far turn, stayed on gamely battling for the lead to mid stretch, and only weakened inside the final sixteenth of a mile to lose by two lengths registering the field’s highest last BRIS Speed Figure of 94, co-highest last race BRIS Class rating, and owns the field’s highest last race BRIS E1 and E2 pace figure in the field. The strength of that race was validated when the sixth-place finisher, Low Gear Power, came back to win. That race should provide plenty of conditioning as he makes his second start following a two hundred and fifty-six day layoff. He has returned with four work outs over Hollywood Park’s Cushion Track including a six furlong move in 1:15.4 that National Turf’s John Wilson caught him stating he “Worked easily in this stamina drill going 51.1, 115.4. Seeking level.” More importantly he should be loose on an uncontested lead. The four horses drawn inside of him (Nuggests Please, Hog’s Hollow, Yodelan Dan, and Achak) lack the early speed this gelding inherits and Alonso Quinonez should find himself on a loose lead without any early pressure and more relaxed early pace in his second start following layoff will find this gelding in the Winner’s Circle gate to wire as my BEST BET on the card.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (5) SCORPION TIME to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 2-1 or better)
Main Exacta: 5-8. Small reverse
Small Exacta: 5-2. No reverse
Race 5: Allowance N1X-Optional Claiming $40,000, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and mares
HALFAPONDAROSA (#6, 20-1) is a filly that I highly doubt that we will get her morning line price of 20-1 but I will take 8-1 or better on the best gamble on today’s card and in a race that begins a mandatory Pick 6 payout on closing day. This mare has won only once in eight starts this year but she has been remarkably consistent finishing in the money in her last three starts including a better than looked third place finish 15-1 long shot winner Queen Mariles on August 4 here at Del Mar. The first of her two second place efforts occurred on June 10 at Hollywood Park where she rallied to finish second behind Kaylie’s Joy in a race where the lack of early pace compromised this mare’s chances. In that race she settled in mid-pack saving ground down the backstretch as the leader was able to get away through a moderate 22.31 second first quarter. She angled off the rail into the two path splitting horses around the far turn, was taken four wide into the stretch, and finished up nicely to lose by only three-quarter of lengths finishing in front of next time out winner Malusita. The race did not shape up well for this stalker as the winner, Kaylie’s Joy, was allowed to coast along on a uncontested early lead compromising this mare’s chances. Despite this defeat her connections moved her up one level in class reeling her back in only seventeen days and found another pace less field. In a small five horse field she navigated over to the rail sitting in fourth behind three horse speed battle among Thunder and Ice, Humble Maggie, and eventual winner One Fun Son of a Gun as those three rattled off below average fractions of 22.91 for opening quarter and 45.94 second for half mile. She rallied up along the rail into and around the far turn, challenged the eventual winner, and just missed by a neck finishing well clear of the rest of the field earning above par BRIS late pace figure in the process. She was claimed for $20,000 by her former connections Alesia & Bran James Stable who lost her this past March for $16,000. She returned from a brief thirty-eight day freshening and was moved up two levels in class to $32,000 on August 4 and she ran a sneaky good third beaten two lengths in another race devoid of early speed. In that race she stalked the pace in a good spot on the rail as the leader and eventual winner Queen Mariles was able to get away through a opening quarter in 22.74 seconds. She made a nice run along the rail into and around the far turn to challenge the fresh front runner at mid stretch, lost her punch, and was able to hold third. She returns in thirty-five days with three maintenance works over the Del Mar Poly Track and instead of dropping in class she is moving up one level in class which is a positive indication that this More than Ready mare is doing very well for trainer Peter Eurton who has won 43% (3-for-7) with his starters making their second start after claim and gets Patrick Valenzuela for the first time. More importantly she finally finds a field loaded with plethora of early speed. From the rail to the outside Tamerin, Charlie’s Princess, Desert Flight, Perfect Vintage, and Moon Stone Madness have all flashed early or prompting speed to ensure an honest to fast early clip for the stretch runners. I look for a patient stalk and pounce type of trip for this bay mare whose consistency will be rewarded to her backers at a giant odds in the meet’s final Pick 6.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (6) HALFAPONDAROSA to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 8-1 or better)
Main Exacta Box: 5, 6, 9
Race 6: Maiden Claiming $40,000, 5-½ Furlongs, Two year old Fillies
HOMEWORK (#3, 8-1) is my co-top choice with first time starter METER ME GONE (#9, 15-1). However I am leaning towards a horse with experience as HOMEWORK will make her third career start for trainer Edward Freeman and this daughter of Momentum has not hit the board in two career starts. She has lost both starts by a combined eight and a quarter lengths and finished sixth at this class level in her only start over the Del Mar Poly Track. Despite those credentials a closer inspection of two career starts reveals that this dark bay filly is much better than her margin of defeat would indicate and she exits two very productive maiden races that makes this filly a strong contender to break her maiden in her third career start. She made her debut on April 28 at Hollywood Park where she was dismissed by the wagering public at odds of 41-1 the second longest priced horse in the field and she out ran those odds finishing fourth beaten only three lengths to the gate to wire winner Alaska Miss. Forced to break from the rail in a field of ten she displayed excellent early speed to press the pace inside of a three horse speed duel among herself, the eventual winner Alaska Miss, and See the Girl Go. She continued pressing the pace all the way to the top of the stretch and only lost third near the wire to Tuesdays with P who rallied from sixth to catch third. She earned an excellent BRIS Speed Figure of 87 in the process including earning the field’s highest BRIS Class rating in the process. The strength of that race was validated as the second-and-sixth place finishers (See the Girl Go and So Delish) both returned to win with the winner Alaska Miss returning to run second in a Starter Allowance. She made her second career start three months later on July 29 dropping to this class level for the first time and according to her work pattern did not appear fit for that race. She had a two month gap between her first race and her next recorded work out on June 26 and than missed twelve days of training between July 6 to July 18. Coming off the layoff in her first start on the Del Mar Poly Track this filly raced in the two path stalking the pace in traffic between rivals early, she steadied losing a half step down the backstretch, was taken four wide entering the stretch, and passed tired rivals splitting the field in sixth losing by five and a quarter lengths. The strength of that race was validated as the winner and runner-up both returned to win making this a “key” race. In addition to the trouble she had down the backstretch she was forced to race wide into the stretch versus a strong inside bias making this effort look better than what appears on paper. She has come back with a slow five furlong work at San Luis Rey Downs five days ago to prepare for this event and the a blinkers are coming on for the first time a move his trainer has won with 20% (2-for-10) in the past year. Based on this fillies connections jockey Kerwin John (1-for-41) and trainer Edward Freeman (0-for-5) one could easily dismiss this fillies chances but after a promising debut effort on April 28 and than a troubled better than looked sixth place finish in her only start over this surface and both fields returned to be “key” events in her second start following a three month layoff makes HOMEWORK another great gamble on the closing day Del Mar program.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (3) HOMEWORK to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 6-1 or better)
Play the (9) METER ME GONE to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 8-1 or better)
Main Exacta Box: 3, 9, 10
Race 8: Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity, 7 Furlongs, Two-year olds
RIVETING REASON (#2, 12-1) will be making his third career start and also has not won a race as he enters this prestigious Grade 1 event won last year by Eclipse Award winning two year old Looking at Lucky. This grand son of Mr. Prospector has really blossom here at Del Mar beginning with his debut back on July 31 and his second career start on August 14. He was able to show versatility in both starts and in a field where there at least four others that can flash early speed or prompt the early pace this dark bay two year old colt can be position just behind the early speed and get first run on our second preference Western Mood at what could be box car odds. He made his debut on July 31 at Del Mar where he was sent off as the second longest shot on the board at 11-1 and finished an excellent third beaten less than two lengths after encountering trouble at the start. In that race he broke about two lengths slow when he was forced out at the start, recovered, and got over to the rail to save ground trailing the field early. He began to make up progress into and around the far turn delivering a nice rail run, continuing riding the rails into the stretch, and closed nicely on his left lead while galloping out in the front of the field. The race did not earn a strong BRIS Speed Figure but all indications were that this dark bay colt can improve with this r ace under his belt and more distance. He returned three weeks later at the same six furlong distance and was sent off as the 3-1 second choice in the field of ten and I thought this colt had big chance to break his maiden in that race only to be caught right on the wire by the perfect trip rail rally of the winner Clubhouse Ride. However one could argue that RIVETING REASON was the best horse in that race. In that race he broke cleanly he flashed improved early speed to prompt the early leader long shot Palio Prince through a opening quarter in 22.41 seconds and continued dueling with that long shot leader through a half mile 45.82 seconds. He was finally able to dispose of that pace rival into the stretch, opened up a two length lead at mid stretch, and was caught by the perfect trip winner near the wire to lose by a half length registering a career best BRIS Speed Figure of 89 and earning the field’s co-highest BRIS E2 pace figure in the field. That race was impressive from two stand points. Firstly he clearly won the early pace battle but lost the war as the winner-and-third place finishers rallied from seventh and fifth with RIVETING REASON the only horse to survive the pace duel. Second his pace rival tired so badly from that enervating duel he finished eighth beaten nine and a quarter lengths. The strength of that race was validated when also ran Shrug came back to score a 14-1 upset last Sunday here at Del Mar making this a “key” race. He returns in this Grade 1 event with two sharp work outs capped off by a best of twenty-six half mile move in 46.3 four days ago. Trainer Myung Kwon Cho has been a bettor’s delight with his horses outrunning their odds this meet. From eleven starters six have hit the board at odds ranging from $3.30-1 to $44.40-1 with two wins. He owned, bred, and trained a horse by the name of Street Hero who in entered the 2008 Del Mar Futurity as a maiden and finished third at 6-1 with today’s rider Alex Solis in the irons. RIVETING REASON fit’s the same profile but with all attention focused on JP Gusto, Western Mood, and impressive maiden winner Indian Winter that could equal a generous overlay on this Kentucky bred son of 2000 Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus. My strategy from a wagering point of view is for this colt to hit the board where I can collect in the win, exacta, and trifecta pools if this dark bay or brown colt hit the board. This strategy is much better than a simple across the board wager because you are using the exotic pools to maximize your wager if your horse runs second or third and that will be my plan to attack this race.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (2) RIVETING REASON to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 6-1 or better)
Main Exacta part-wheel: 4, 7, 8, 10 / 2 = $4 for a $1 Wager
Trifecta part-wheel: 4, 7, 8, 10 / 4, 7, 8, 10 / 2 = $12 for a $1 Wager
Del Mar Race 3 Pick 3
Race 3: (2) Hog’s Hollow, (5) SCORPION TIME, (8) Dynamic Range
Race 4: (1) Spaniard, (3) Dancing In Silks, (6) Gato Go Win
Race 5: (5) Jaws N Paws, (6) HALFAPONDAROSA, (9) Gumption
Ticket 1: 5 / 1, 3, 6 / 1, 6, 9 = 1 x 3 x 3 x $1 = $9
Ticket 2: 2, 5, 8 / 1, 3, 6 / 6 = 3 x 3 x 1 x $1 = $9
Ticket 3: 5 / ALL / 6 = 1 x 6 x 1 x $1 = $6
Total Wager: $24
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