Christopher Ado’s Del Mar Handicap
Spot Play Selections, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies from Del Mar
Sunday July 25, 2010
By Christopher Ado
Today’s Action from Del Mar: I will highlight and play races 6, 7, 8, and 9. In addition I will suggest $60 into the Pick 4 (Races 6-9)
Race 6: California Dreamin Stakes, 1-1/16 Miles Turf, Three year olds and up
BRUCE’S DREAM (#8, 7-2) will be making his first start around two turns and at the distance of mile and sixteenth facing Graded Stakes winner and multiple stakes winner Bold Chieftain. Despite the latter having a stellar record at this distance (4/3-0-0) and having finished off the board only once in four starts over the Jimmy Durante Turf course (4/2-1-0), I believe that our top selection has more blue sky in front of him with only five starts and making his second start of this year this Atticus gelding can break through with a big performance this afternoon. This Mike Pupye trainee won his first three starts including two of them over this Del Mar turf course. After registering his third straight victory in a open Allowance N1X he stepped up in class in the Grade 3 Morvich last September at Santa Anita and suffered his first defeat finishing third beaten only two and three-quarter lengths in a highly rated event (104 Beyer) won for the second consecutive year by the fleet California Flag. In that race he was not asked for speed leaving the gate, was taken back towards the rear of the field, and settled in the two path as the eventual winner sprinted clear through a first quarter in 21.55 seconds and half mile in 43.04 seconds. He continued to be held back leaving the down the hill portion of the turf course when he was taken four wide, split rivals, and finished decently to get up for third behind favored gate to wire winner. The strength of that race was validated as the winner, California Flag, returned to win the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint with a Beyer Speed Figure of 105 and tenth place finisher Flashman’s Paper came back to win a $40,000 claiming event with a 84 Beyer Speed Figure. The gray or roan gelding was not seen again on the race track for over six months when he returned in Allowance N2X at Hollywood Park on June 25. He was sent off as the post time favorite at odds of 6-5 and showed new dimension in his one length victory. In that race he showed newfound early speed to press the leader Sky Victor as those two dueled through fractions of 23.50 for the first quarter and 46.83 seconds for half mile. With those slow early fractions it set up for a sprint to the wire and Bruce’s Dream finally shook free of Sky Victor approaching mid stretch and kicked it into another gear flying through the final furlong in a blistering 10.85 seconds. The improved early speed off the long layoff plus his ability finish powerfully will allow this home bred gelding to sit the perfect trip in this race. Two horses are stretching out from a sprint into a route, Triumphant Flight and Colgan’s Chip, with both horses vying for the early lead jockey Joe Talamo can get over from his outside post position to track that pair in a perfect spot and get the first jump on the morning line favorite Bold Chieftain. He will be making his second start following the long layoff and returned with two good work outs including dazzling National Turf’s Andy Harrington watch with a six furlong move on the turf course seven days ago in 1:12.3 that Andy gave him a B+ stating “Big drill right back finishing with power late in 49.0, 112.3 (23.3 LQ). Roan for Puype is feeling great these days.” With only five starts this gelding still has plenty of room to improvement and with his improved early speed, blistering late kick, and strong work out coming up into this race makes BRUCE’S DREAM a possible single to begin the Pick 4 and the Pick 6 that has a carryover of over $185,000.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (8) BRUCE’S DREAM to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 5-2 or better)
Main Exacta: 8-5. Small reverse only.
Small Exacta: 8-3. No reverse.
Race 7: Allowance N2X-Optional Claiming $62,500, 6 Furlongs, Three and up
GOLDEN WINNER (#4, 7-2) will be trying the Del Mar Poly Track for the first time as this dark bay or brown colt ships in from Northern California for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. This unbeaten son of More than Ready enters this race undefeated in two starts including a smashing six length victory over the conventional main track at Pleasanton on June 26. Although the quality of the competition he faced in both starts is questionable there are two main factors that persuaded me selecting this colt as my top choice. Firstly is the lack of quality early speed in this Allowance N2X as El Scorpio is the only dedicated front runner in this field and lastly both of his wins in Northern California were visually impressive. He made his career debut over the Golden Gate Tapeta surface on June 5 where he received plenty of support going off as the third choice at odds of 7-2 in the field of ten and he romped by six lengths. In that race he pressed the early pace in the three path with two other pace rivals, Kool N Quick and Absolute Magnitude, through quick early fractions of 21.51 seconds for opening quarter and 45.21 seconds for half mile. He shook free of those two pace rivals past the quarter pole, opened up a two and a half length lead at mid stretch and widen to win by six lengths as he was “never asked” according to the Daily Racing Form trouble comment. The two impressive parts about that victory was he won the early battle for the lead and the war and did it through swift early fractions. The two horses he dueled with, Kool N Quick and Absolute Magnitude, finished third beaten seven and half lengths and sixth beaten ten lengths. Next were the fractions of 21.51 and 45.21 seconds. The first quarter was the fastest of the seven one turn races on the June 5 program and his half mile fractions was the second fastest of seven sprints on the card. Instead of shipping to Southern California he remained in Northern California to face winners for the first time in Allowance N1X at Pleasanton on June 26 and he once again prevailed victorious in the same impressive manner just as his maiden victory. Trying the conventional main track for the first time and stretching out a sixteenth of a mile to today’s six furlong distance Golden Winner found him inside of a five horse speed battle from post position two with Move Over Marino, Richly Red, Point Lobos, and Senator Bob, through a quick first quarter in 22.17 seconds. He continued to battle for the lead from the inside with Richly Red as those sprinted through a half mile in 44.61 seconds, he shook free of his pace rivals past the quarter pole, opened up a two and half length at mid stretch, and kick clear to win by six lengths recording a career best 90 Beyer Speed Figure. The two parts that made that victory so impressive was the fact the four horses he dueled with finished third-fourth-fifth-seventh. The second is the fractions of that race with the final time. The 44.61 second half mile he set was the second fastest on the June 26 program and the final time of 1:08.91 was the fastest six furlongs on that card making Golden Winner’s win look even more impressive. He has returned with two easy maintaince work outs over the Golden Gate Tapeta surface to suggest he has held his form and his trainer, Jerry Hollendorfer, is off to a fast start in the first week of Del Mar winning at a 27% (3-for-11). With only El Scorpio as the other speed in this field look for Golden Winner to be pressed by the rival early, shake loose of him approaching the quarter pole, and if he duplicates his two wins in Northern California he will kick clear under Tyler Baze at a hint of a price to begin the final Pick 3 on the card. I will look to beat morning line favorite New Bay. Despite exiting the best race with the field’s fastest Beyer Speed Figures in the field his win June 6 was visually unimpressive as the first five place finishers were separated by only two and three-quarter lengths and returned to be a negative key race with the winner through fifth place finishers returning to finish off the board in their next start.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (4) GOLDEN WINNER to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 5-2 or better)
Main Exactas: 4-1 and 4-7. Small reverse for each.
Race 8: Grade II San Clemente Handicap, 1-Mile Turf, Three year old Fillies
SWITCH (#5, 6-1) is my long shot play to win this year’s San Clemente Handicap switching from the Cushion Track at Hollywood Park to the Jimmy Durante Turf course here at Del Mar. The daughter of Quiet American has really blossomed in her last two starts finishing a better than looked second in a very productive Grade III Railbird Stakes and than parlaying that runner-up effort with a victory over Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks winner Blind Luck. She will be making her first start off a seven week layoff but she has shown twice that she runs well fresh: she broke her maiden in her career debut last December and finished an excellent second to the previously unbeaten Tanda in the Grade III Railbird Stakes on May 9. Although she lost by a half length in that aforementioned latter event she lost more ground than the comment “3wd turn, rallied,” would indicate in the Daily Racing Form. Breaking from post position nine in a nine horse field Switch was rated off the slow first quarter in 23.08 seconds as she rated rate in fifth racing three wide off that slow pace. While the winner, Tanda, rode the rails to grab the lead into the far turn, Switch, was forced four wide into and around the far turn after a half mile in a tepid 45.64 seconds. She continued to lose ground into the stretch and covered her final furlong in 12.32 seconds to lose by a half length in a highly rated event (98 Beyer Speed Figure). When you combined the slow early pace and the wide trip that Switch encountered one could understand if she was best in this race. The strength of that race was validated when the third-place finisher, All Due Respect, came back to win Allowance N1X earning a 104 Beyer Speed Figure. The sixth place finisher returned to win the Manhattan Beach Stakes via disqualification and the seventh place finisher returned to win Allowance N1X. Also the winner Tanda returned to finish a better than looked third in the G1 Acorn at Belmont Park making the Railbird Stakes a mega “key” event. She tried back out to mile and a sixteenth in the Grade 2 Hollywood Oaks to tackle Blind Luck and although she received ten pounds from the favorite she was able to utilize her tactical speed and good trip en route to a length and a quarter victory. In that race she was hard held early saving ground into the first turn and down the backstretch as the leader Camille C set pokey early fractions 50.11 seconds for half mile and six furlongs in 1:14.50 seconds. She made a three wide move into the far turn to get the jump on the favorite, made the lead into the stretch with her right lead, switch to her left lead at mid stretch, and than back to her right lead to win going away over the 1-2 favorite. The strength of that victory has already been validated as the runner-up returned to win the Delaware Oaks and the fourth-place finisher Antares World returned to run an excellent second beaten length and a quarter in the Grade 1 American Oaks on July 3 at Hollywood Park. She has returned with five works including her last two work outs over the Hollywood Park turf course that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with grades of B+. She worked six furlongs in 1:14.4 on July 11 where he stated “M. Garcia up, bounced out of her last race terrific, finishing with spark and galloping out even better in 50.1, 114.4 out in 127.1. Doing great,” and she came right back seven days later to work seven furlongs in 1:26.2 stating she “was really striding out nicely over the turf, fluid and strong for the Sadler barn in 1:02.1, 1:26.2. Again very strong.” Her affinity for the turf course should come as no surprise because her dam, Antoniette, recorded five wins from seven starts on the turf. She has excellent tactical speed to sit the perfect trip as she projects to sit in behind Southern Fireball who is stretching out from a sprint into a route and expected leader Crisis of Spirit. In a competitive renewal she is the highest price of my contenders and enters this race ready for a peak performance at a hint of a price.
Wagering Strategies
Play the (5) SWITCH to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 4-1 or better)
Main Exactas: 5-1, 5-2, 5-6. Small reverse for each.
Race 9: Maiden Special Weight, 5-½ Furlongs, Two year olds
HE BE FIRE N ICE (#8, 9-2) was dismissed in his career debut on July 4 at odds of 33-1 and if you look at strictly finish positions he ran to his odds finishing sixth in a eight horse field. However this Pico Perdomo trainee ran sneaky well in that race versus open maiden special weight company. The Unusual Heat California bred was dismissed in his career debut because his sire, Unusual Heat, wins a low percentage of his first starters and had worked only in average manner according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington. He covered five furlongs in 1:00.3 on June 9 where Andy gave him a C+ stating that “Flores up, shoved inside barn mate Red Tesla trying his best in a slower than given 36.2, 1:01.2. Eh,” and witness his half mile work in 47.4 on June 24 where he commented that this gray’s “tail flipped while working inside barn mate Red Tesla (47.4) going 36.2, 48.1. Let’s see one.” Without a win early pedigree and average work outs leading up to his career debut one could understand why he was dismissed at 33-1 and he ran much better than his “Off slowly, no rally,” comment found in your Daily Racing Form. In that race he broke about two lengths slow at the start be away dead last, recovered to trail the field in the two path early, made a nice move leaving the half mile pole, and was actually able to sustain that move to the quarter pole where he flattened out and passed tired rivals through the stretch to lose by only six lengths in a highly rated affair (76 Beyer Speed Figure) won by Dependable. He might have bled in that race because he makes his second career start with lasix and takes the blinkers off for the first time. He drops into this class level for the first time with improved work outs according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington as he praised his last two work outs with grades of B-. He worked a half mile in 48.1 on July 14 where Andy caught him trying “hard on this drill flashing some dig late in 36.1, 48.0 (11.4 L 1/8TH). Maybe figuring things out some,” and concluded his work tab with a three furlong blow out from the gate in 35.3 where Andy commented he “was moving well by the stands here in 24.4, 36.2 going under some late restraint to the end. Suspect this one will be more focused in second start.” Last year’s Eclipse Award for top apprentice Christian Santiago Reyes climbs aboard this gray or roan colt for the first time and dropping in class, exiting the best race, and with improved work outs I look for HE BE FIRE N ICE to spring a minor upset for trainer Pico Perdomo who conditioned Gourmet Girl to win the Eclipse Award for older filly or mare.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (8) HE BE FIRE N ICE to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 7-2 or better)
Main Exactas: 8-3, 8-4, 8-7 Small reverse for each.
**Del Mar Race 6 Pick 4 **
Race 6: (5) Bold Chieftain (8) BRUCE’S DREAM
Race 7: (1) New Believer, (4) GOLDEN WINNER, (7) Afleet Ruler
Race 8: (2) Fortunia, (5) Switch, (6) Evening Jewel
Race 9: (3) Classic Bobby, (4) Merlin Z, (7) Storddim, (8) He Be Fire N Ice
Ticket A: 8 / 1, 4, 7 / 2, 5, 6 / 3, 4, 7, 8 = 1 x 3 x 3 x 4 x $1 = $36
Ticket B: 5, 8 / 4 / 2, 5, 6 / 3, 4, 7, 8 = 2 x 1 x 3 x 4 x $1 = $24
Total Wager: $60
** With Del Mar implementing a $0.50 increment for the Pick 4 you can cut the cost of the ticket above by playing it for $0.50 making it a $30 play instead of $60. Wager within your comfort level.
No comments:
Post a Comment