July 24 Del Mar Handicap

Christopher Ado’s Del Mar Handicap
Spot Play Selections, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies from Del Mar
Saturday July 24, 2010
By Christopher Ado

Today’s Action from Del Mar: I will highlight and play races 6, 7, 8, and 9. In addition I will put $27 into a Pick 3 (Races 6-9)

Race 6: Osunitas Stakes, 1-1/16 Miles Turf, Fillies and mares
LILLY FA POOTZ (#10, 8-1) must break from outside post position eight in a ten horse field leaving the chute at Del Mar which is not a easy task. However the post can be compensated by the fact there appears to be a sufficient amount of early speed to set up for this mare’s late kick and exit’s the best races as the subsequent performances of the horses she has been running against prove that this Jerry Hollendorfer trainee can pull off the mild upset. Since being claimed back in December 2009 and being placed on the turf she has finished first or second in all six turf starts but her form reached a new level in three starts over the Inglewood turf course. In her May 13 start she stalked the uncontested leader Zillia in a comfortable spot in fourth behind moderate early pace. She swept up three wide around the far turn, took command of the lead approaching mid stretch, and was run down by the winner Turning Top to lose by a neck. Although that race earned a below average Performance Rating of 105 (Par Figure 116) the strength of that race was validated when the winner Turning Top returned to win the Redondo Beach Stakes and the Grade III Beverly Hills Stakes. The fifth place finisher Talktoomuch returned to win a $40,000 claiming event in her next start. Next she returned three weeks later on June 4 to run in the same Allowance N2X and lost by a half length in another productive “key” race. In that race she was ranked early stalking the pace in a comfortable spot on the rail early. She continued to race in mid pack behind the measured early pace set by Zillia. She raced on the rail into the far turn, entered the stretch three wide, and rallied to miss by a half length to the pace presser and winner It Tiz earning another Performance Rating of 105 covering her final quarter of a mile in 23.26 seconds. The strength of that race was validated when the winner returned to win the Le Cle Stakes and third place finisher Zillia returned to finish second beaten only a nose in Allowance N2X here at Del Mar on July 21. After consecutive runner-up efforts at the Allowance N2X her consistency was rewarded with a one length victory on June 27 at this same mile and a sixteenth distance defeating subsequent next time out winner Ruffled Feathers covering her final five-sixteenths in 29.35 seconds. She returns in four weeks with three maintenance works in the interim that suggests she has held her form. Also the pace of this restricted stakes race should be swift with early pace types such as Ruination, Burg Burg, Rosey de Megeve, and Theodora possessing early or prompting early speed ensuring an honest pace for the stalkers and closers. This dark bay mare has finished first or second in seven or eight starts this year and with her potent late kick she can mow down her rivals under Joe Talamo at a hint of a price. Although she is drawn poorly in post position eight the morning line price of 8-1 compensates for the risk.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (10) LILLY FA POOTZ to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 5-1 or better)
Main Exactas: 10-2, 10-9, 10-11. Small reverse for each.

Race 7: Maiden Special Weight, 5-½ Furlongs, Two year olds
PRAYER FOR RELIEF (#7, 6-1) is my top choice in the first open two year old maiden race of the season at Del Mar. This dark bay or brown colt by Jump Start has all the ingredients one would look for in a winning first time starter. He owns incredible win early breeding for a two-year old, is trained by hottest conditioner of two year old maidens this year, has trained in smart fashion for his career, and because of the depth of this field this could be overlooked in the wagering at a hint of a price. The dam of Prayer for Relief, Sparkin Lil, won six of twenty-eight starts in her career but more importantly she was very successful as a two year old. From nine starts as two year old Sparkin Lil won three times and she has passed on her preciousness to her progeny. From four foals to race three are winners including One More Lillian who broke her maiden as a two year old. In addition to being bred to win early Prayer for Relief is trained by Bob Baffert who has been the hottest trainer of two year old this year. At the recently concluded Hollywood Park spring-summer meeting he started six two year olds making their career debut with four of them visiting the winner circle with one second and one fourth for a gaudy 67% win rate. Last year at Del Mar trainer Bob Baffert connected twice with debuting two year olds with Tiny Woods in the first two year old maiden race of 2009 and Always a Princess. Not only is this dark bay or brown colt bred to win early, trained by the hottest conditioner of two year olds on this circuit but also has trained in smart fashion up to his debut according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington. He worked five furlongs from the gate in 1:00 flat on July 9 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington raved with a B- stating “Looked a tad best late with barnmate Blazing Along, both chasing the very talented A Z Warrior in 24.0, 47.1, 100.1. No disgrace here; seems to be a fit.” That work was flattered when A Z Warrior broke his maiden in his career debut at Hollywood Park on July 15. Finally he concluded his work tab with a best of twenty-five five furlong move in 59.2 on July 15 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave him a B- stating “Not bad at all finishing without much ask with a worker in 35.2, 59.3. Has try in him.” Although the barn’s go to rider, Martin Garcia, is aboard our third preference, Rock So Hard, jockey Martin Pedorza has become a excellent alternative for this barn. He has won nine of his last thirty four starts for this trainer in the past year for an excellent 26% win rate and was aboard first time starter Go On Babe on opening day to break his maiden for these same connections. From my four contenders Prayer for Relief was the longest price of them and should make a good account for himself because of his win early breeding, his trainers record with two year olds this year, and his good work pattern leading up to his debut all suggest Prayer for Relief is primed to come out running out of the box in his first start.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (7) PRAYER FOR RELIEF to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 4-1 or better)
Main Exactas: 7-4, 7-6, 7-9. Small reverse for each.

Race 8: Grade I Eddie Read Handicap, 1-1/8 Miles, Three year olds and up
VICTOR’S CRY (#2, 5-1) is seeking his second straight Grade I event this year in today’s feature race at Del Mar also trying the distance of mile and a eighth for the first time. Despite the distance issue this son of Street Cry gets a ready made pace scenario to flatter his closing kick and will be able to save every inch of ground as he is drawn in post position two that will enable jockey Corey Nakatini to conserve this horse’s energy and produce late kick. This Eoin Harty trainee will be making his first start off a seven week layoff but this dark bay or brown colt has shown twice in his career that he runs well fresh. He won his only start over this Del Mar turf course exactly one year ago at 7-1 when he was return off a two hundred and forty-five day layoff and he made his five year old seasonal debut a successful one when he returned from a one hundred and sixteen layoff on February 3 to win a Allowance event down the hillside turf course at odds of 8-1. In that race he found himself in the rear of the field as the dueling leaders Get Funky and Liberian Freighter established wicked fractions of 21.02 seconds for opening quarter and 42.92 seconds for half mile. He was taken outside for the stretch drive and rallied past the leader Cherokee Heaven to post a half length victory covering his final five-sixteenths in a snappy 27.02 seconds. Next he returned in the Joe Hernandez Stakes that was rained off to the main track and he finished an even fourth over a synthetic surface that he detest (8/1-1-1) versus the turf course (9/4-1-1). He returned to the turf course in the Grade 3 San Simeon Stakes on April 17 and finished second to down the hill specialist Mr. Gruff (6/5-1-0). Despite the latter recording his fifth victory at that distance this dark bay or brown colt was compromised by the lack of early pace. He was taken back towards the rear of the field as Mr. Gruff and Trumpet Player Jay walked thru a first quarter in 22.52 seconds. Despite this disadvantage pace scenario this ridging was able to do split rivals through the stretch to get up for second behind the 4-5 favored winner. He was sent off at odds of 21-1 when he stretched back out to one mile in the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile and with an excellent ground saving ride and trip by jockey Corey Nakatini this horse able to garner his first Grade I victory running down a top class horse in the now retired Karelian. Breaking from post position two he was able to go over towards the rail going to the first turn and saved ground through the first six furlongs as Mr. Gruff established a crisp early pace of 46.05 for half mile and six furlongs in 1:09.20 seconds. He was taken three wide entering the stretch and ran down Karelian to win by a head covering his final quarter of a mile in 23.14 seconds. Before being retired Karelian had won the Tampa Bay Stakes defeating subsequent Grade 1 Man O’ War winner and last year’s Eclipse Award older and turf male Gio Ponti. Also he won the Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile at Keeneland. Next to defeating a top rival the strength of Shoemaker Mile was validated as the sixth-place finisher Global Hunter returned to win the Grade 2 American Handicap in his next start. He returns from a seven week layoff with consecutive work outs including an easy five furlong move over the Del Mar turf course in 1:02.3 on July 19 that was maintenance move for this horse. With Acclimation fleeing post position four to go straight for the lead with Enriched not too far away and The Usual Q.T tracking that pair before commencing his move into the far turn that will allow Victor’s Cry to bide his time ahead of Loup Breton and get first run towards the quarter pole and unleash that late kick. Jockey Corey Nakatini won this race last year with Global Hunter and we will see if can go back to back at another price.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (2) VICTOR’S CRY to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 7-2 or better)
Main Exacta Boxes: 2-3 and 2-5

Race 9: Claiming $12,500 to $10,500, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and mares
ASH FORK (#7, 8-1) is a three-year old Rocky Bar filly that will be making her second start at this condition and dropping from two open claiming events into this restricted level. The dark bay or brown filly exit’s a pair of below average claiming events in her last two starts at Hollywood Park finishing third in a $20,000 claiming event on May 27 and came back to split the field in fifth on June 24. In the former event she had no real excuse tiring to finish third beaten two lengths at odds of 9-1 in a race that earned par figure of 90. In that race he was able to coast to the early lead and establish a sensible early pace through a first quarter mile in 22.45 seconds and sped through a half mile in a leisurely 45.89 seconds. She was tackled Miss Olivia K at mid stretch and weaken in the final furlong to third losing by two lengths. She dropped one more level on June 24 and managed to split her field crossing the wire fifth in another below average race for the level (Performance Rating 87). However the subsequent performances of the horses in that race prove that race was a lot stronger than the final time speed figure would indicate. In that race she was out run for the early lead and settled in mid pack saving ground in sixth as Blind Optimism was able to get away with a first quarter in 22.31 seconds. She continued saving ground on the far turn, angled out two wide entering the stretch and lacked a rally to finish in mid pack beaten five and a quarter lengths. Despite the below average speed figure the race has proven to be a very productive event. The winner, Frequent Fame, returned on July 18 to win for $20,000 claiming level. The third-place finisher Pretty Kinzie returned on July 2 to win by a length for $10,000 claiming price. Lastly the sixth place finisher Warren’s Swap Fox returned on July 22 here at Del Mar and won for a $16,000 claiming level. As you can see the performances of the winner and two also ran in the field make this a “key” race. This Arizona bred filly has come back with a maintenance half mile move in 48.1 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington commented “On own for Mullins working a maintenance 1/2 mile in 24.0, 48.1. Looking for level around here.” Though she is winless in three starts at this six furlong distance she does have a versatile running style as she broke her maiden contesting the early pace or sitting just off the early pace and in a field that does not have a plethora of early speed look for this filly to sit on or near modest early fractions. Exiting the best race, dropping into this restricted class level, and having the necessary tactical speed to sit close and pounce makes ASH FORK our best long shot bet on the first Saturday program of Del Mar.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (7) ASH FORK to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 6-1 or better)
Main Exactas: 7-2, 7-5, 7-6. Small reverse for each.

Del Mar Race 6 Pick 3

Race 6: (9) U R All That I Am, (10) LILLY FA POOTZ, (11) Restless Soul
Race 7: (4) Rock So Hard, (7) PRAYER FOR RELIEF , (9) Just Imagine
Race 8: (2) VICTOR’S CRY, (3) The Usual Q.T, (5) Loup Breton

Ticket 1: 10 / 4, 7, 9 / 2, 3, 5 = 1 x 3 x 3 x $1 = $9
Ticket 2: 9, 10, 11 / 7 / 2, 3, 5 = 3 x 1 x 3 x $1 = $9
Ticket 3: 9, 10, 11 / 4, 7, 9 / 2 = 3 x 3 x 1 x $1 = $9
Total Wager: $27