Christopher Ado’s Del Mar Handicap
Selections, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies from Del Mar
Wednesday September 8, 2010 - CLOSING DAY
By Christopher Ado
Today’s Action from Del Mar: I will highlight and play races 3, 5, 6, and 8. In addition I will put in $24 into a Pick 3 (Races 3-5).
Race 3: Allowance N1X-Optional Claiming $40,000, 1-3/8 Miles Turf, Three and up
SCORPION TIME (#5, 7-2) enters this race off a forty-eight day layoff for trainer Michael Machowsky who has won only 8% (1-for-13) of his starters this meet at Del Mar. However he is primed to get his second winner on closing day of this meet as he has placed this grand son of Seattle Slew in a perfect level and could not find a better pace scenario than the one this bay gelding found this afternoon. He faced the morning line favorite Dynamic Range in two previous starts but it was their previous engagement on November 8 at Oak Tree at Santa Anita meeting where they were separated by only a half length and one could argue that this horse ran the best race. In that race he raced closest to the leader Candy Arches but rated nicely behind that leader as he runaway through six furlongs in 1:10.08 and one mile in 1:35.56 seconds. He made his move at the leader around the far turn to take over the lead and opened up a two-length lead at mid stretch only to get caught by the winner Dynamic Range who benefited from this enervating early pace rallying from fourth in perfect spot. SCORPION TIME lost nothing in disgrace earning the field’s co-top highest BRIS Class rating in the field and finishing three lengths in front of the rest of the field in a winning effort in defeat. He was not seen for the rest of the year and for the first six months of 2010 when he returned from a two hundred and fifty-six day layoff on July 22 here at Del Mar and finished a tiring third beaten two lengths at this same class level and distance. A closer inspection of that race reveals he ran another terrific race in defeat. In that race he dueled head and head for the early lead with 21-1 long shot Tiz True through a first quarter 23.53 seconds. He was able to open some separation from that rival as he sped through six furlongs 1:12.46 seconds. He was tackled by the post time favorite Trip Taka around the far turn, stayed on gamely battling for the lead to mid stretch, and only weakened inside the final sixteenth of a mile to lose by two lengths registering the field’s highest last BRIS Speed Figure of 94, co-highest last race BRIS Class rating, and owns the field’s highest last race BRIS E1 and E2 pace figure in the field. The strength of that race was validated when the sixth-place finisher, Low Gear Power, came back to win. That race should provide plenty of conditioning as he makes his second start following a two hundred and fifty-six day layoff. He has returned with four work outs over Hollywood Park’s Cushion Track including a six furlong move in 1:15.4 that National Turf’s John Wilson caught him stating he “Worked easily in this stamina drill going 51.1, 115.4. Seeking level.” More importantly he should be loose on an uncontested lead. The four horses drawn inside of him (Nuggests Please, Hog’s Hollow, Yodelan Dan, and Achak) lack the early speed this gelding inherits and Alonso Quinonez should find himself on a loose lead without any early pressure and more relaxed early pace in his second start following layoff will find this gelding in the Winner’s Circle gate to wire as my BEST BET on the card.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (5) SCORPION TIME to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 2-1 or better)
Main Exacta: 5-8. Small reverse
Small Exacta: 5-2. No reverse
Race 5: Allowance N1X-Optional Claiming $40,000, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and mares
HALFAPONDAROSA (#6, 20-1) is a filly that I highly doubt that we will get her morning line price of 20-1 but I will take 8-1 or better on the best gamble on today’s card and in a race that begins a mandatory Pick 6 payout on closing day. This mare has won only once in eight starts this year but she has been remarkably consistent finishing in the money in her last three starts including a better than looked third place finish 15-1 long shot winner Queen Mariles on August 4 here at Del Mar. The first of her two second place efforts occurred on June 10 at Hollywood Park where she rallied to finish second behind Kaylie’s Joy in a race where the lack of early pace compromised this mare’s chances. In that race she settled in mid-pack saving ground down the backstretch as the leader was able to get away through a moderate 22.31 second first quarter. She angled off the rail into the two path splitting horses around the far turn, was taken four wide into the stretch, and finished up nicely to lose by only three-quarter of lengths finishing in front of next time out winner Malusita. The race did not shape up well for this stalker as the winner, Kaylie’s Joy, was allowed to coast along on a uncontested early lead compromising this mare’s chances. Despite this defeat her connections moved her up one level in class reeling her back in only seventeen days and found another pace less field. In a small five horse field she navigated over to the rail sitting in fourth behind three horse speed battle among Thunder and Ice, Humble Maggie, and eventual winner One Fun Son of a Gun as those three rattled off below average fractions of 22.91 for opening quarter and 45.94 second for half mile. She rallied up along the rail into and around the far turn, challenged the eventual winner, and just missed by a neck finishing well clear of the rest of the field earning above par BRIS late pace figure in the process. She was claimed for $20,000 by her former connections Alesia & Bran James Stable who lost her this past March for $16,000. She returned from a brief thirty-eight day freshening and was moved up two levels in class to $32,000 on August 4 and she ran a sneaky good third beaten two lengths in another race devoid of early speed. In that race she stalked the pace in a good spot on the rail as the leader and eventual winner Queen Mariles was able to get away through a opening quarter in 22.74 seconds. She made a nice run along the rail into and around the far turn to challenge the fresh front runner at mid stretch, lost her punch, and was able to hold third. She returns in thirty-five days with three maintenance works over the Del Mar Poly Track and instead of dropping in class she is moving up one level in class which is a positive indication that this More than Ready mare is doing very well for trainer Peter Eurton who has won 43% (3-for-7) with his starters making their second start after claim and gets Patrick Valenzuela for the first time. More importantly she finally finds a field loaded with plethora of early speed. From the rail to the outside Tamerin, Charlie’s Princess, Desert Flight, Perfect Vintage, and Moon Stone Madness have all flashed early or prompting speed to ensure an honest to fast early clip for the stretch runners. I look for a patient stalk and pounce type of trip for this bay mare whose consistency will be rewarded to her backers at a giant odds in the meet’s final Pick 6.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (6) HALFAPONDAROSA to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 8-1 or better)
Main Exacta Box: 5, 6, 9
Race 6: Maiden Claiming $40,000, 5-½ Furlongs, Two year old Fillies
HOMEWORK (#3, 8-1) is my co-top choice with first time starter METER ME GONE (#9, 15-1). However I am leaning towards a horse with experience as HOMEWORK will make her third career start for trainer Edward Freeman and this daughter of Momentum has not hit the board in two career starts. She has lost both starts by a combined eight and a quarter lengths and finished sixth at this class level in her only start over the Del Mar Poly Track. Despite those credentials a closer inspection of two career starts reveals that this dark bay filly is much better than her margin of defeat would indicate and she exits two very productive maiden races that makes this filly a strong contender to break her maiden in her third career start. She made her debut on April 28 at Hollywood Park where she was dismissed by the wagering public at odds of 41-1 the second longest priced horse in the field and she out ran those odds finishing fourth beaten only three lengths to the gate to wire winner Alaska Miss. Forced to break from the rail in a field of ten she displayed excellent early speed to press the pace inside of a three horse speed duel among herself, the eventual winner Alaska Miss, and See the Girl Go. She continued pressing the pace all the way to the top of the stretch and only lost third near the wire to Tuesdays with P who rallied from sixth to catch third. She earned an excellent BRIS Speed Figure of 87 in the process including earning the field’s highest BRIS Class rating in the process. The strength of that race was validated as the second-and-sixth place finishers (See the Girl Go and So Delish) both returned to win with the winner Alaska Miss returning to run second in a Starter Allowance. She made her second career start three months later on July 29 dropping to this class level for the first time and according to her work pattern did not appear fit for that race. She had a two month gap between her first race and her next recorded work out on June 26 and than missed twelve days of training between July 6 to July 18. Coming off the layoff in her first start on the Del Mar Poly Track this filly raced in the two path stalking the pace in traffic between rivals early, she steadied losing a half step down the backstretch, was taken four wide entering the stretch, and passed tired rivals splitting the field in sixth losing by five and a quarter lengths. The strength of that race was validated as the winner and runner-up both returned to win making this a “key” race. In addition to the trouble she had down the backstretch she was forced to race wide into the stretch versus a strong inside bias making this effort look better than what appears on paper. She has come back with a slow five furlong work at San Luis Rey Downs five days ago to prepare for this event and the a blinkers are coming on for the first time a move his trainer has won with 20% (2-for-10) in the past year. Based on this fillies connections jockey Kerwin John (1-for-41) and trainer Edward Freeman (0-for-5) one could easily dismiss this fillies chances but after a promising debut effort on April 28 and than a troubled better than looked sixth place finish in her only start over this surface and both fields returned to be “key” events in her second start following a three month layoff makes HOMEWORK another great gamble on the closing day Del Mar program.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (3) HOMEWORK to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 6-1 or better)
Play the (9) METER ME GONE to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 8-1 or better)
Main Exacta Box: 3, 9, 10
Race 8: Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity, 7 Furlongs, Two-year olds
RIVETING REASON (#2, 12-1) will be making his third career start and also has not won a race as he enters this prestigious Grade 1 event won last year by Eclipse Award winning two year old Looking at Lucky. This grand son of Mr. Prospector has really blossom here at Del Mar beginning with his debut back on July 31 and his second career start on August 14. He was able to show versatility in both starts and in a field where there at least four others that can flash early speed or prompt the early pace this dark bay two year old colt can be position just behind the early speed and get first run on our second preference Western Mood at what could be box car odds. He made his debut on July 31 at Del Mar where he was sent off as the second longest shot on the board at 11-1 and finished an excellent third beaten less than two lengths after encountering trouble at the start. In that race he broke about two lengths slow when he was forced out at the start, recovered, and got over to the rail to save ground trailing the field early. He began to make up progress into and around the far turn delivering a nice rail run, continuing riding the rails into the stretch, and closed nicely on his left lead while galloping out in the front of the field. The race did not earn a strong BRIS Speed Figure but all indications were that this dark bay colt can improve with this r ace under his belt and more distance. He returned three weeks later at the same six furlong distance and was sent off as the 3-1 second choice in the field of ten and I thought this colt had big chance to break his maiden in that race only to be caught right on the wire by the perfect trip rail rally of the winner Clubhouse Ride. However one could argue that RIVETING REASON was the best horse in that race. In that race he broke cleanly he flashed improved early speed to prompt the early leader long shot Palio Prince through a opening quarter in 22.41 seconds and continued dueling with that long shot leader through a half mile 45.82 seconds. He was finally able to dispose of that pace rival into the stretch, opened up a two length lead at mid stretch, and was caught by the perfect trip winner near the wire to lose by a half length registering a career best BRIS Speed Figure of 89 and earning the field’s co-highest BRIS E2 pace figure in the field. That race was impressive from two stand points. Firstly he clearly won the early pace battle but lost the war as the winner-and-third place finishers rallied from seventh and fifth with RIVETING REASON the only horse to survive the pace duel. Second his pace rival tired so badly from that enervating duel he finished eighth beaten nine and a quarter lengths. The strength of that race was validated when also ran Shrug came back to score a 14-1 upset last Sunday here at Del Mar making this a “key” race. He returns in this Grade 1 event with two sharp work outs capped off by a best of twenty-six half mile move in 46.3 four days ago. Trainer Myung Kwon Cho has been a bettor’s delight with his horses outrunning their odds this meet. From eleven starters six have hit the board at odds ranging from $3.30-1 to $44.40-1 with two wins. He owned, bred, and trained a horse by the name of Street Hero who in entered the 2008 Del Mar Futurity as a maiden and finished third at 6-1 with today’s rider Alex Solis in the irons. RIVETING REASON fit’s the same profile but with all attention focused on JP Gusto, Western Mood, and impressive maiden winner Indian Winter that could equal a generous overlay on this Kentucky bred son of 2000 Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus. My strategy from a wagering point of view is for this colt to hit the board where I can collect in the win, exacta, and trifecta pools if this dark bay or brown colt hit the board. This strategy is much better than a simple across the board wager because you are using the exotic pools to maximize your wager if your horse runs second or third and that will be my plan to attack this race.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (2) RIVETING REASON to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 6-1 or better)
Main Exacta part-wheel: 4, 7, 8, 10 / 2 = $4 for a $1 Wager
Trifecta part-wheel: 4, 7, 8, 10 / 4, 7, 8, 10 / 2 = $12 for a $1 Wager
Del Mar Race 3 Pick 3
Race 3: (2) Hog’s Hollow, (5) SCORPION TIME, (8) Dynamic Range
Race 4: (1) Spaniard, (3) Dancing In Silks, (6) Gato Go Win
Race 5: (5) Jaws N Paws, (6) HALFAPONDAROSA, (9) Gumption
Ticket 1: 5 / 1, 3, 6 / 1, 6, 9 = 1 x 3 x 3 x $1 = $9
Ticket 2: 2, 5, 8 / 1, 3, 6 / 6 = 3 x 3 x 1 x $1 = $9
Ticket 3: 5 / ALL / 6 = 1 x 6 x 1 x $1 = $6
Total Wager: $24
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
Saturday, August 28, 2010
Saturday's Pacific Classic Handicap
Christopher Ado’s Del Mar Handicap
Analysis, Selections, and Wagering Strategies for Del Mar
Saturday August 28, 2010
By Christopher Ado
Today’s Action from Del Mar: I will highlight and play races 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8. In addition I will give out a $34 Pick 3 play (Races 4-6)
Race 4: Grade 2 Del Mar Mile Handicap, 1-Mile Turf, Three year olds and upward
BLUE CHAGALL (#1, 7-2) is the co-third choice on the morning line and this French bred gelding is the true definition of a horse of course that has an affinity for this one mile distance on the turf. From four starts over the Del Mar turf course this horse has recorded two victories and from thirteen starts at this one mile distance he has recorded three victories including a convincing length and a quarter victory last time in the Wickeer Stakes the local prep for today’s event. Prior to his victory this Julio Canani trainee had finished off the board in two previous starts where he was beaten a combined sixteenth and a half lengths. He was sent off at odds of 32-1 in the Grade 1 Shoemaker’s Mike where he crossed the wire last in the field of nine in a race where he was clearly overmatched. Despite finishing off the board in three previous starts on a All Weather surface, his connections decided to switch him to the Cushion Track at Hollywood Park on July 15 where he showed vastly improved early speed with addition of blinkers to press the early pace set by One Track Mind and weakened badly through the stretch to cross the wire second to last beaten six lengths in his four consecutive off the board finish on a All Weather surface. He returned to his favorite turf course, removed the blinkers, and drew the coveted rail post position in the Wickeer Stakes and the result was a generous $24 win mutual where he took advantage of a perfect trip en route to a length and a quarter victory. In that race he was allowed to save ground going into the first turn as the leader, Angie Engineer, was allowed to coast on a uncontested early lead through a first quarter in 23.58 seconds and half mile 47.69 seconds. He moved up along the rail going into the far turn, saved ground patiently waiting for room to develop, angled one off the rail into the stretch, kick past the leader, and drove clear to a length and a quarter victory earning the field’s highest last race Performance Rating of 119 (Par Figure 121) in the field. Not only did he earned a competitive speed figure but also covered his final quarter of a mile in snappy fashion covering that ground in a blazing 22.64 seconds earning the field’s second highest last race BRIS late pace figure in the field. He returns from a thirty-one day layoff with crisp work outs over Del Mar’s Poly Track including a five furlong move in 1:01 flat where National Turf’s Andy Harrington stated he appeared “Relaxed and happy with this sharp looking finish, last 1/4 in 23.4. Holds edge well.” Although his win on July 28 was the beneficiary of a perfect trip he should navigate a similar trip from the rail with David Flores back in the irons and solid amount of early speed lined up for his late kick. From the inside to outside Golden Mexico, Scenic Blast, and Enriched have earned close to or exceed the par for BRIS E1 and E2 pace figures and that should allow BLUE CHAGALL to save ground behind this trio of early leaders or pace prompting horses, patiently bide his time around the far turn, get the first jump on Bruce’s Dream, and kick clear en route to his first Graded Stakes victory. With all the attention focused on two morning line favorites, Enriched and Bruce’s Dream, look for a hint of a price on this bay gelding by Testa Rossa as my BEST BET on program.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (1) BLUE CHAGALL to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 3-1 or better)
Main Exactas: 1-6, 1-7. Small reverse for each
Race 5: Maiden Special Weight, 6-½ Furlongs, Three year olds and up
LONE JUSTICE (#8, 8-1) will be making his first start off a fifty day layoff for trainer Jorge Periban who has won only once in nine starts so far this meet. Despite the trainer’s statistics this meet this California bred gelding by Roman Ruler exit’s the three best main track race in this field according to the Handicapper’s Report Performance Ratings, has a versatile running style that will allow this dark bay gelding to sit a good trip just behind the early leaders, and has been training in sharp fashion for his return according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington. He made his first start for his new connections off almost a five month layoff on June 12 and finished third beaten four and half lengths in a highly rated race won by Moon Lark. In that race he settled just off the early leaders in fourth in the two-path, moved up three wide on the far turn and into the stretch, was late changing to his right lead until mid stretch, and was distant third. The race earned an above par Performance Rating of 106 and the validity of that figure was verified when the sixth and seventh-place finisher (Blue Jack Attack and Lyons Barton) came back to win. He returned fourteen days later where he finished fifth beaten twelve and three-quarter lengths but ran into another highly rated event won by the favored gate to wire winner Capital Account. In that race he found himself in a perfect spot stalking dueling leaders on the rail in fourth. He continued saving ground into and around the far turn, was out run, and gave way to finish fifth. The race earned an above par Performance Rating of 114 and was verified when the winner and second-place finisher came back to win their next start. He made his third in only four weeks last time out and affects of that grueling campaign caught up to him as he finished a flat fifth beaten seven lengths by the favorite Blue Jay Attack. In that race he was pushed from the gate and showed improved early speed to press the pace in the two path, continued pressing the pace outside of Don Perico around the far turn, remained in the hunt to mid stretch, and gave way in the final furlong to lose by seven lengths in another productive “key” race. The third-and-sixth place finishers (Don Perico and Valley Cat) came back to win. He has come back with four works over Hollywood Park’s Cushion Track and two of them caught National Turf’s John Wilson attention. He worked five furlongs in 59.3 on August 9 where John Wilson commented he appeared on the “Easy side in this solo drill finishing with something left in reserve for Periban in 35.4, 59.2. Has perked up, it appears.” He concluded his work pattern with a best of twenty-eight five furlong move in 59.2 that John stated he “Appears improved for Periban reaching with spark in 35.0, 59.3 while guided along late. Nice.” He gets rider switch to Mike Smith for the first time and with Crestatore, The Usual One, and Shu Biz Danny all displaying signs of early speed I expect to see LONE JUSTICE sitting just off that trio of early leaders and without the likes of Moon Lark or Capital Account in this field, get first run, and pull off the upset.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (8) LONE JUSTICE to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 6-1 or better)
Main Exactas: 8-2, 8-4, 8-7. Small reverse for each.
Race 6: Allowance N1X, 1-1/16 Miles Turf, Three year olds and up
WHERE’S THE REMOTE (#2, 5-2) is the morning line favorite in his only second start versus open company and is set to deliver his second consecutive win this meet in a race that begins the Guaranteed $750,000 Pick 6. The gray or roan gelding made his first start off a two month layoff on July 24 for his new connections in his first start around two turns and finished second beaten three and quarter lengths by today’s rival Call Me Honcho. Despite this defeat this California bred gelding ran better than the winner when you consider his trip and the track bias. In that race he pressed the early pace from the inside, dropped back into and down the backstretch to stalk the pace on the rail in good position, angled off the rail on the final turn but could not find room and thus dropped back to the rail into the stretch and re-rallied to get second versus the wide rally of the winner Call Me Honcho. The reason this gelding ran a better race than the winner is because he prompted the pace inside versus a main track that strongly favored outside lines over a distance that strongly favors closers making his effort look better than what appears on paper. Although the race earned a below average Performance Rating of 98 the final speed figure was the result of very slow fractions. He returned in fourteen days trying grass for the first time for a sire, Unbrided Native, that connects with 25% of his progeny winning on that surface for the first time and this four-year old ran to his pedigree blitzing his field by three and a half lengths earning par Performance Rating of 108 that is the highest last race in this field. In that race he found the rail going into the first turn and settled in mid pack in the clear, maneuvered into the two path down the backstretch, moved up three wide around the far turn, came five wide into the stretch, quickly blew past the leaders and kick clear earning a BRIS Class Rating of 118 that ties him for the highest last race Class Rating in this field. He covered his final five-sixteenths in a snappy 29.33 seconds earning the field’s second highest last race BRIS late pace figure in the field and should only move forward because he makes his third start into this form cycle. Since that race he has come back with two work outs over Del Mar’s Poly Track including a six furlong move in 1:14.4 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington raved with a B+. In that work out Andy stated he “Breezed with some style with barnmate Zippin E (114.4) in 37.2, 102.2 out in 114.4 to the 7 furlong pole. Continues ascension.” This stalker breaks from beneficiary inside post positions (post two) and should navigate and clean ground saving trip at what could be a honest pace. From the inside to the outside, Carbon Hoofprint, Hughesy, Teafatiller, and Concerto’s Thunder have all showed early speed or have enough gas to prompt the pace ensuring that our top choice gets sufficient amount of early zip for his late kick. Drawn very well with the highest last race Performance Rating over this surface and training well out of his last start makes WHERE’S THE REMOTE my second BEST BET on the card and SINGLE to begin the Guaranteed $750,000 Pick 6.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (2) WHERE’S THE REMOTE (Minimum fair odds of 9-5 or better)
Trifecta part-wheel: 2 over 5, 8, 9 over ALL = $24 for a $1 Wager
Trifecta part-wheel: 2 over 5, 8, 9 over 1, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 10 = $18 for a $1 Wager
Race 7: Maiden Special Weight, 5-½ Furlongs, Two year olds
DIXIE CROSS (#10, 9-2) is my co-top choice with fellow first time starter GOLDEN BOUNTY (#8, 8-1) both will be making their career debut this afternoon in a race where three of the entrants have experience. However none of the three entrants have earned a Performance Rating that equals the par for this class level (Par Figure 96) and that race makes this ripe for a first time starter and this dark bay or brown colt has the winning profile that I look for in a first time starter. He is bred on both sides of his pedigree to win as a two year old, has worked splendidly according to National Turf’s John Wilson, and is trained by John Sadler who has excelled with two year olds so far this meet. This dark bay colt was purchased for $70,000 that was the second highest of nine two year olds sold at the Ocala Breeders Sales this past March and is above the sire’s average of $35,600. His sire, Bandini, has produced 21% with his first time starters. This will be her dam’s first start but her dam, Five Star Holding, was very precocious. She broke her maiden as two year old and was second in the Three Chimney’s Juvenile Stakes all as two year old. He comes into this race with eight consecutive well spaced work outs and National Turf’s John Wilson caught both his August 12 and August 18 work outs and caught his attention rating them with B and B+ respectively. He worked five furlongs in 1:00.4 on August 12 that John stated he appeared to have “Tons left while breezing best over a mate in 48.3, 100.2 galloping out big in 113.1. Nice looking sort,” and returned six days later with a five furlong move from the gate in 59.4 where John stated he was in a “Total breeze in this gate drill with Backstage Dancer appearing to be a nice sort, always held up in 23.2, 47.3, 59.3. Nice all the way.” He capped off a solid five furlong move in 1:00.4 five days ago over Hollywood Park’s Cushion Track. Trainer John Sadler has saddled three two year old winners this meet but more importantly two of them were making their career debut with today’s jockey Joel Rosario in the irons. Contemplated (August 11, $8.80) broke his maiden in his career debut with today’s rider Joel Rosario in the irons for owners Pam and Marty Wygod and Yellow Slicker (August 13, $10) broke her maiden in her debut in a $40,000 maiden claiming event. This information suggest that John Sadler’s debuting two year old maidens are live with Joel Rosario this meet and in the last two weeks this trainer-jockey team have combined to win 25% (4-for-16). This colt is drawn outside to avoid being trapped on the rail is trained by a trainer that excels with debuting two year old maidens with Joel Rosario in the irons, has trained in spectacular fashion according to National Turf’s John Wilson, and bred on both his sire and dam’s side to win as two year old makes DIXIE CROSS the top choice in the only open two-year old maiden event in the Guaranteed Pick 6.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (8) GOLDEN BOUNTY to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 5-1 or better)
Play the (10) DIXIE CROSS to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 4-1 or better)
Main Exactas: 8-7, 8-9, 8-10. No reverse
Main Exactas: 10-7, 10-8, 10-9. No reverse
Race 8: Grade 1 Pacific Classic, 1-¼ Miles, Three year olds and up
BATTLE OF HASTINGS (#1, 10-1) is co-top choice to win this year’s Pacific Classic along with DAKOTA PHONE (#3, 6-1) but the top preference belongs to this son of Royal Applause who is expected to be a generous price come post time. Although this British bred is winless in five starts this year and his trainer, Jeff Mullins, is winless in his first twenty-four starters this meet this gelding has been compromised by the lack of pace or trouble trips this year and his runner-up finish in the Grade 2 San Diego is an indication that this bay gelding is rounding into form and should be set to peak performance in his second start off a brief layoff. He finished fourth beaten less than two lengths in the Grade 1 Turf Classic on Kentucky Derby day at Churchill Downs but was affected by a trouble trip and extremely soft course. In that race he was taken back at the break to trail behind an uncontested leader. He moved up along the inside around the far turn but was badly blocked behind a wall of horses entering stretch and could not find room to run until very late where he split rivals and was out finished. Next he shipped back to Southern California to run in the Grade 1 Whittingham on June 5 at Hollywood Park and crossed the wire fifth beaten two and three-quarter lengths behind the uncontested gate to wire winner Acclimation. However he was badly compromised by the lack of early speed and wide trip when he split the field in that June 5 Grade 1 event. Breaking from post position ten in a ten horse field he was caught three wide into and around the first turn, he could not get over to save ground and was parked four wide down the backstretch. He was able to get over into the two-path around the far turn, maneuvered over to the rail into the stretch, and finished evenly behind the gate to wire winner Acclimation in this better than looked performance. In order to find his form he was freshened for six weeks and returned in the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap trying Del Mar’s Poly Track for the first time and the result was an improved performance losing by a half length giving him a shot in this year’s Pacific Classic. In that race he was squeezed a bit after the start, got over to the rail to save ground and settled off the quick early pace established by Enriched. As the field began to bunch up into and around the far turn he maneuvered into the two path and worked his way through horses, found a clear path entering the stretch four wide split rivals, took over the lead, and was out finished to lose by a half length earning a competitive Performance Rating of 115. He should have sufficient amount of early speed in this ten horse field with Isle of Giant’s and Patrick Valenzuela going straight to the front followed closely by Temple City and The Unusual Q.T. tracking or pressing that long shot leader ensuring honest fractions for this stalker. Although he will be stretching out from mile and a sixteenth to mile and a quarter it should be noted that this bay gelding won the Virginia Derby and was second to The Unusual Q.T at this mile and a quarter distance as a three-year old and ranks second in BRIS Prime Power and third in overall BRIS Class Ratings. He has returned with two work outs over Hollywood Park’s Cushion Track including a five furlong move in 1:00.3 that National Turf’s John Wilson commented he was “Looking fine since last easy home in 36.1, 100.3. Holding course.” Jockey Brice Blanc takes over from the injured Tyler Baze and Joe Talamo ensuring a generous price and BATTLE OF HASTINGS fit’s the profile that goes unnoticed in many Grade 1 races. A beaten favorite at lower class level that moves up in class off a good effort.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (1) BATTLE OF HASTINGS to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 8-1 or better)
Play the (3) DAKOTA PHONE to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 6-1 or better)
Main Exactas: 1-3, 1-6, 1-7, 1-10. No reverse
Main Exactas: 3-1, 3-6, 3-7, 3-10. No reverse
Del Mar Pick 3 Race 4
Race 4: (1) BLUE CHAGALL, (6) Enriched, (7) Bruce’s Dream
Race 5: (2) Crestatorre, (4) The Wollan, (7) Shu Biz Danny, (8) Lone Justice
Race 6: (2) WHERE’S THE REMOTE, (5) Hughesy, (9) Call Me Wonder
Ticket 1: 1 / 1, 4, 7, 8 / 2, 5, 9 = 1 x 4 x 3 x $1 = $12
Ticket 2: 1, 6, 7 / 1, 4, 7, 8 / 2 = 3 x 4 x 1 x $1 = $12
Ticket 3: 1 / ALL / 2 = 1 x 10 x 1 x $1 = $10
Total Wager: $34
Analysis, Selections, and Wagering Strategies for Del Mar
Saturday August 28, 2010
By Christopher Ado
Today’s Action from Del Mar: I will highlight and play races 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8. In addition I will give out a $34 Pick 3 play (Races 4-6)
Race 4: Grade 2 Del Mar Mile Handicap, 1-Mile Turf, Three year olds and upward
BLUE CHAGALL (#1, 7-2) is the co-third choice on the morning line and this French bred gelding is the true definition of a horse of course that has an affinity for this one mile distance on the turf. From four starts over the Del Mar turf course this horse has recorded two victories and from thirteen starts at this one mile distance he has recorded three victories including a convincing length and a quarter victory last time in the Wickeer Stakes the local prep for today’s event. Prior to his victory this Julio Canani trainee had finished off the board in two previous starts where he was beaten a combined sixteenth and a half lengths. He was sent off at odds of 32-1 in the Grade 1 Shoemaker’s Mike where he crossed the wire last in the field of nine in a race where he was clearly overmatched. Despite finishing off the board in three previous starts on a All Weather surface, his connections decided to switch him to the Cushion Track at Hollywood Park on July 15 where he showed vastly improved early speed with addition of blinkers to press the early pace set by One Track Mind and weakened badly through the stretch to cross the wire second to last beaten six lengths in his four consecutive off the board finish on a All Weather surface. He returned to his favorite turf course, removed the blinkers, and drew the coveted rail post position in the Wickeer Stakes and the result was a generous $24 win mutual where he took advantage of a perfect trip en route to a length and a quarter victory. In that race he was allowed to save ground going into the first turn as the leader, Angie Engineer, was allowed to coast on a uncontested early lead through a first quarter in 23.58 seconds and half mile 47.69 seconds. He moved up along the rail going into the far turn, saved ground patiently waiting for room to develop, angled one off the rail into the stretch, kick past the leader, and drove clear to a length and a quarter victory earning the field’s highest last race Performance Rating of 119 (Par Figure 121) in the field. Not only did he earned a competitive speed figure but also covered his final quarter of a mile in snappy fashion covering that ground in a blazing 22.64 seconds earning the field’s second highest last race BRIS late pace figure in the field. He returns from a thirty-one day layoff with crisp work outs over Del Mar’s Poly Track including a five furlong move in 1:01 flat where National Turf’s Andy Harrington stated he appeared “Relaxed and happy with this sharp looking finish, last 1/4 in 23.4. Holds edge well.” Although his win on July 28 was the beneficiary of a perfect trip he should navigate a similar trip from the rail with David Flores back in the irons and solid amount of early speed lined up for his late kick. From the inside to outside Golden Mexico, Scenic Blast, and Enriched have earned close to or exceed the par for BRIS E1 and E2 pace figures and that should allow BLUE CHAGALL to save ground behind this trio of early leaders or pace prompting horses, patiently bide his time around the far turn, get the first jump on Bruce’s Dream, and kick clear en route to his first Graded Stakes victory. With all the attention focused on two morning line favorites, Enriched and Bruce’s Dream, look for a hint of a price on this bay gelding by Testa Rossa as my BEST BET on program.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (1) BLUE CHAGALL to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 3-1 or better)
Main Exactas: 1-6, 1-7. Small reverse for each
Race 5: Maiden Special Weight, 6-½ Furlongs, Three year olds and up
LONE JUSTICE (#8, 8-1) will be making his first start off a fifty day layoff for trainer Jorge Periban who has won only once in nine starts so far this meet. Despite the trainer’s statistics this meet this California bred gelding by Roman Ruler exit’s the three best main track race in this field according to the Handicapper’s Report Performance Ratings, has a versatile running style that will allow this dark bay gelding to sit a good trip just behind the early leaders, and has been training in sharp fashion for his return according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington. He made his first start for his new connections off almost a five month layoff on June 12 and finished third beaten four and half lengths in a highly rated race won by Moon Lark. In that race he settled just off the early leaders in fourth in the two-path, moved up three wide on the far turn and into the stretch, was late changing to his right lead until mid stretch, and was distant third. The race earned an above par Performance Rating of 106 and the validity of that figure was verified when the sixth and seventh-place finisher (Blue Jack Attack and Lyons Barton) came back to win. He returned fourteen days later where he finished fifth beaten twelve and three-quarter lengths but ran into another highly rated event won by the favored gate to wire winner Capital Account. In that race he found himself in a perfect spot stalking dueling leaders on the rail in fourth. He continued saving ground into and around the far turn, was out run, and gave way to finish fifth. The race earned an above par Performance Rating of 114 and was verified when the winner and second-place finisher came back to win their next start. He made his third in only four weeks last time out and affects of that grueling campaign caught up to him as he finished a flat fifth beaten seven lengths by the favorite Blue Jay Attack. In that race he was pushed from the gate and showed improved early speed to press the pace in the two path, continued pressing the pace outside of Don Perico around the far turn, remained in the hunt to mid stretch, and gave way in the final furlong to lose by seven lengths in another productive “key” race. The third-and-sixth place finishers (Don Perico and Valley Cat) came back to win. He has come back with four works over Hollywood Park’s Cushion Track and two of them caught National Turf’s John Wilson attention. He worked five furlongs in 59.3 on August 9 where John Wilson commented he appeared on the “Easy side in this solo drill finishing with something left in reserve for Periban in 35.4, 59.2. Has perked up, it appears.” He concluded his work pattern with a best of twenty-eight five furlong move in 59.2 that John stated he “Appears improved for Periban reaching with spark in 35.0, 59.3 while guided along late. Nice.” He gets rider switch to Mike Smith for the first time and with Crestatore, The Usual One, and Shu Biz Danny all displaying signs of early speed I expect to see LONE JUSTICE sitting just off that trio of early leaders and without the likes of Moon Lark or Capital Account in this field, get first run, and pull off the upset.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (8) LONE JUSTICE to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 6-1 or better)
Main Exactas: 8-2, 8-4, 8-7. Small reverse for each.
Race 6: Allowance N1X, 1-1/16 Miles Turf, Three year olds and up
WHERE’S THE REMOTE (#2, 5-2) is the morning line favorite in his only second start versus open company and is set to deliver his second consecutive win this meet in a race that begins the Guaranteed $750,000 Pick 6. The gray or roan gelding made his first start off a two month layoff on July 24 for his new connections in his first start around two turns and finished second beaten three and quarter lengths by today’s rival Call Me Honcho. Despite this defeat this California bred gelding ran better than the winner when you consider his trip and the track bias. In that race he pressed the early pace from the inside, dropped back into and down the backstretch to stalk the pace on the rail in good position, angled off the rail on the final turn but could not find room and thus dropped back to the rail into the stretch and re-rallied to get second versus the wide rally of the winner Call Me Honcho. The reason this gelding ran a better race than the winner is because he prompted the pace inside versus a main track that strongly favored outside lines over a distance that strongly favors closers making his effort look better than what appears on paper. Although the race earned a below average Performance Rating of 98 the final speed figure was the result of very slow fractions. He returned in fourteen days trying grass for the first time for a sire, Unbrided Native, that connects with 25% of his progeny winning on that surface for the first time and this four-year old ran to his pedigree blitzing his field by three and a half lengths earning par Performance Rating of 108 that is the highest last race in this field. In that race he found the rail going into the first turn and settled in mid pack in the clear, maneuvered into the two path down the backstretch, moved up three wide around the far turn, came five wide into the stretch, quickly blew past the leaders and kick clear earning a BRIS Class Rating of 118 that ties him for the highest last race Class Rating in this field. He covered his final five-sixteenths in a snappy 29.33 seconds earning the field’s second highest last race BRIS late pace figure in the field and should only move forward because he makes his third start into this form cycle. Since that race he has come back with two work outs over Del Mar’s Poly Track including a six furlong move in 1:14.4 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington raved with a B+. In that work out Andy stated he “Breezed with some style with barnmate Zippin E (114.4) in 37.2, 102.2 out in 114.4 to the 7 furlong pole. Continues ascension.” This stalker breaks from beneficiary inside post positions (post two) and should navigate and clean ground saving trip at what could be a honest pace. From the inside to the outside, Carbon Hoofprint, Hughesy, Teafatiller, and Concerto’s Thunder have all showed early speed or have enough gas to prompt the pace ensuring that our top choice gets sufficient amount of early zip for his late kick. Drawn very well with the highest last race Performance Rating over this surface and training well out of his last start makes WHERE’S THE REMOTE my second BEST BET on the card and SINGLE to begin the Guaranteed $750,000 Pick 6.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (2) WHERE’S THE REMOTE (Minimum fair odds of 9-5 or better)
Trifecta part-wheel: 2 over 5, 8, 9 over ALL = $24 for a $1 Wager
Trifecta part-wheel: 2 over 5, 8, 9 over 1, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 10 = $18 for a $1 Wager
Race 7: Maiden Special Weight, 5-½ Furlongs, Two year olds
DIXIE CROSS (#10, 9-2) is my co-top choice with fellow first time starter GOLDEN BOUNTY (#8, 8-1) both will be making their career debut this afternoon in a race where three of the entrants have experience. However none of the three entrants have earned a Performance Rating that equals the par for this class level (Par Figure 96) and that race makes this ripe for a first time starter and this dark bay or brown colt has the winning profile that I look for in a first time starter. He is bred on both sides of his pedigree to win as a two year old, has worked splendidly according to National Turf’s John Wilson, and is trained by John Sadler who has excelled with two year olds so far this meet. This dark bay colt was purchased for $70,000 that was the second highest of nine two year olds sold at the Ocala Breeders Sales this past March and is above the sire’s average of $35,600. His sire, Bandini, has produced 21% with his first time starters. This will be her dam’s first start but her dam, Five Star Holding, was very precocious. She broke her maiden as two year old and was second in the Three Chimney’s Juvenile Stakes all as two year old. He comes into this race with eight consecutive well spaced work outs and National Turf’s John Wilson caught both his August 12 and August 18 work outs and caught his attention rating them with B and B+ respectively. He worked five furlongs in 1:00.4 on August 12 that John stated he appeared to have “Tons left while breezing best over a mate in 48.3, 100.2 galloping out big in 113.1. Nice looking sort,” and returned six days later with a five furlong move from the gate in 59.4 where John stated he was in a “Total breeze in this gate drill with Backstage Dancer appearing to be a nice sort, always held up in 23.2, 47.3, 59.3. Nice all the way.” He capped off a solid five furlong move in 1:00.4 five days ago over Hollywood Park’s Cushion Track. Trainer John Sadler has saddled three two year old winners this meet but more importantly two of them were making their career debut with today’s jockey Joel Rosario in the irons. Contemplated (August 11, $8.80) broke his maiden in his career debut with today’s rider Joel Rosario in the irons for owners Pam and Marty Wygod and Yellow Slicker (August 13, $10) broke her maiden in her debut in a $40,000 maiden claiming event. This information suggest that John Sadler’s debuting two year old maidens are live with Joel Rosario this meet and in the last two weeks this trainer-jockey team have combined to win 25% (4-for-16). This colt is drawn outside to avoid being trapped on the rail is trained by a trainer that excels with debuting two year old maidens with Joel Rosario in the irons, has trained in spectacular fashion according to National Turf’s John Wilson, and bred on both his sire and dam’s side to win as two year old makes DIXIE CROSS the top choice in the only open two-year old maiden event in the Guaranteed Pick 6.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (8) GOLDEN BOUNTY to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 5-1 or better)
Play the (10) DIXIE CROSS to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 4-1 or better)
Main Exactas: 8-7, 8-9, 8-10. No reverse
Main Exactas: 10-7, 10-8, 10-9. No reverse
Race 8: Grade 1 Pacific Classic, 1-¼ Miles, Three year olds and up
BATTLE OF HASTINGS (#1, 10-1) is co-top choice to win this year’s Pacific Classic along with DAKOTA PHONE (#3, 6-1) but the top preference belongs to this son of Royal Applause who is expected to be a generous price come post time. Although this British bred is winless in five starts this year and his trainer, Jeff Mullins, is winless in his first twenty-four starters this meet this gelding has been compromised by the lack of pace or trouble trips this year and his runner-up finish in the Grade 2 San Diego is an indication that this bay gelding is rounding into form and should be set to peak performance in his second start off a brief layoff. He finished fourth beaten less than two lengths in the Grade 1 Turf Classic on Kentucky Derby day at Churchill Downs but was affected by a trouble trip and extremely soft course. In that race he was taken back at the break to trail behind an uncontested leader. He moved up along the inside around the far turn but was badly blocked behind a wall of horses entering stretch and could not find room to run until very late where he split rivals and was out finished. Next he shipped back to Southern California to run in the Grade 1 Whittingham on June 5 at Hollywood Park and crossed the wire fifth beaten two and three-quarter lengths behind the uncontested gate to wire winner Acclimation. However he was badly compromised by the lack of early speed and wide trip when he split the field in that June 5 Grade 1 event. Breaking from post position ten in a ten horse field he was caught three wide into and around the first turn, he could not get over to save ground and was parked four wide down the backstretch. He was able to get over into the two-path around the far turn, maneuvered over to the rail into the stretch, and finished evenly behind the gate to wire winner Acclimation in this better than looked performance. In order to find his form he was freshened for six weeks and returned in the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap trying Del Mar’s Poly Track for the first time and the result was an improved performance losing by a half length giving him a shot in this year’s Pacific Classic. In that race he was squeezed a bit after the start, got over to the rail to save ground and settled off the quick early pace established by Enriched. As the field began to bunch up into and around the far turn he maneuvered into the two path and worked his way through horses, found a clear path entering the stretch four wide split rivals, took over the lead, and was out finished to lose by a half length earning a competitive Performance Rating of 115. He should have sufficient amount of early speed in this ten horse field with Isle of Giant’s and Patrick Valenzuela going straight to the front followed closely by Temple City and The Unusual Q.T. tracking or pressing that long shot leader ensuring honest fractions for this stalker. Although he will be stretching out from mile and a sixteenth to mile and a quarter it should be noted that this bay gelding won the Virginia Derby and was second to The Unusual Q.T at this mile and a quarter distance as a three-year old and ranks second in BRIS Prime Power and third in overall BRIS Class Ratings. He has returned with two work outs over Hollywood Park’s Cushion Track including a five furlong move in 1:00.3 that National Turf’s John Wilson commented he was “Looking fine since last easy home in 36.1, 100.3. Holding course.” Jockey Brice Blanc takes over from the injured Tyler Baze and Joe Talamo ensuring a generous price and BATTLE OF HASTINGS fit’s the profile that goes unnoticed in many Grade 1 races. A beaten favorite at lower class level that moves up in class off a good effort.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (1) BATTLE OF HASTINGS to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 8-1 or better)
Play the (3) DAKOTA PHONE to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 6-1 or better)
Main Exactas: 1-3, 1-6, 1-7, 1-10. No reverse
Main Exactas: 3-1, 3-6, 3-7, 3-10. No reverse
Del Mar Pick 3 Race 4
Race 4: (1) BLUE CHAGALL, (6) Enriched, (7) Bruce’s Dream
Race 5: (2) Crestatorre, (4) The Wollan, (7) Shu Biz Danny, (8) Lone Justice
Race 6: (2) WHERE’S THE REMOTE, (5) Hughesy, (9) Call Me Wonder
Ticket 1: 1 / 1, 4, 7, 8 / 2, 5, 9 = 1 x 4 x 3 x $1 = $12
Ticket 2: 1, 6, 7 / 1, 4, 7, 8 / 2 = 3 x 4 x 1 x $1 = $12
Ticket 3: 1 / ALL / 2 = 1 x 10 x 1 x $1 = $10
Total Wager: $34
Saturday, July 31, 2010
Saturday's Del Mar Play of the Day
Christopher Ado’s Del Mar Handicap
Spot Play Selections, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies from Del Mar
Saturday July 31, 2010
By Christopher Ado
Today’s Action from Del Mar: I LOVE Race 8 San Diego Handicap and that is my only play for Saturday.
Race 8: G2 San Diego Handicap, 1-1/16 Miles, Three year olds and up
SANGAREE (#5, 5-1) will be stretching back out to mile and a sixteenth after three consecutive runner-up finishes at Hollywood Park. Although being the brides maid might conclude some to believe this son of Awesome Again as a potential “hanger” this Bob Baffert trainee has run into two of the strongest races this past spring-summer meet at Hollywood Park. First he ran second behind the 1-5 winner Rail Trip in the Californian Handicap (108 Beyer Speed Figure) and in his last start rallied smartly to complete the exacta behind his stable mate, E Z Gentlemen, in the Grade I Triple Bend Handicap (109 Beyer Speed Figure). He returns to the Del Mar Poly Track with a ready made pace scenario that fits his stalking style and while he was compromise by slow early paces in his last two starts the presence Isle of Giant, Red Eye Express, Tres Borrachos, and Enriched will ensure an honest pace to set this race up for stalkers or closers. After a visually unimpressive second place finish to aforementioned Rail Trip in the G2 Mervlyn LeRoy Handicap (finished on his left lead through the stretch) he switched to Martin Garcia for the Californian Handicap and ran second behind Rail Trip but was compromise by the lack of early pace. In that race SANGAREE was in the two path stalking the long shot leader One Track Mind with the favorite pressing that leader through soft first quarter in 24.23 and half mile in 47.96 seconds. He split rivals around the far turn, was taken three wide entering the stretch, and chased home the favored winner to grab second earning a career best 103 Beyer Speed Figure finishing in front of stable mate Spurrier who returned to win Allowance race July 15 with a 97 Beyer Speed Figure. Instead of facing Rail Trip again in the Hollywood Gold Cup, he shorten up to one turn in the seven furlong Grade 1 Triple Bend Handicap and ran into his stable mate E Z Gentlemen who won with a perfect trip (saving ground and pressing slow first quarter). Although he finished three and a quarter lengths behind his stable mate SANGAREE actually ran the better race when you consider the amount of ground he lost running wide and the slow early fractions compromise this stalker. In that race he raced three wide down the backstretch as M One Rifle was pressed from the rail by eventual winner through a soft first quarter in 22.82 seconds. He began to commence his move into the far turn with a three wide run, entered the stretch four wide and completed the exacta in that highly rated event. He returns in only three weeks with a good work over the Del Mar Poly Track in 1:00.4 on July 26 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington stated “Last 4 furlongs in 48.1 waiting a bit on barnmate Excellent News (100.4) going home in his usual workmanlike fashion. Hard knocker looks the same.” After losing ground in his last start behind slow fractions he should get a perfect trip in the San Diego Handicap with speed to his inside and outside jockey Martin Pedroza should navigate this horse over the rail to save ground behind a honest early pace, patiently wait to make his bid, and pounce over a track-distance that favors his stalking running style. Through the conclusion of yesterday’s card there were nine route races from mile to mile and a sixteenth and the average lengths behind the leader at the first call is 2.8 and the average lengths behind the leader at second call is 1.4. That means SANGAREE and the rest of my three contenders will be in position early to make their runs when the early speed in this race collapses and makes for a great gambling race.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (5) SANGAREE to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 7-2 or better)
Main Exactas: 5-3, 5-7, 5-10. Small reverse for each.
My $40 Play
*$10 to WIN on (5) SANGAREE to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 7-2 or better) = $10
$6 Exacta part-wheel: 5 with 3, 7, 10 = $18
$4 Exacta part-wheel: 3, 7, 10 with 5 = $12
Total Wager: $40
*This win bet only is made if SANGAREE goes off at odds above 7-2. If he drops below those fair odds than make the following play.
$8 Exacta part-wheel: 5 with 3, 7, 10 = $24
$6 Exacta part-wheel: 3, 7, 10 with 5 = $18
Total Wager: $42
Spot Play Selections, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies from Del Mar
Saturday July 31, 2010
By Christopher Ado
Today’s Action from Del Mar: I LOVE Race 8 San Diego Handicap and that is my only play for Saturday.
Race 8: G2 San Diego Handicap, 1-1/16 Miles, Three year olds and up
SANGAREE (#5, 5-1) will be stretching back out to mile and a sixteenth after three consecutive runner-up finishes at Hollywood Park. Although being the brides maid might conclude some to believe this son of Awesome Again as a potential “hanger” this Bob Baffert trainee has run into two of the strongest races this past spring-summer meet at Hollywood Park. First he ran second behind the 1-5 winner Rail Trip in the Californian Handicap (108 Beyer Speed Figure) and in his last start rallied smartly to complete the exacta behind his stable mate, E Z Gentlemen, in the Grade I Triple Bend Handicap (109 Beyer Speed Figure). He returns to the Del Mar Poly Track with a ready made pace scenario that fits his stalking style and while he was compromise by slow early paces in his last two starts the presence Isle of Giant, Red Eye Express, Tres Borrachos, and Enriched will ensure an honest pace to set this race up for stalkers or closers. After a visually unimpressive second place finish to aforementioned Rail Trip in the G2 Mervlyn LeRoy Handicap (finished on his left lead through the stretch) he switched to Martin Garcia for the Californian Handicap and ran second behind Rail Trip but was compromise by the lack of early pace. In that race SANGAREE was in the two path stalking the long shot leader One Track Mind with the favorite pressing that leader through soft first quarter in 24.23 and half mile in 47.96 seconds. He split rivals around the far turn, was taken three wide entering the stretch, and chased home the favored winner to grab second earning a career best 103 Beyer Speed Figure finishing in front of stable mate Spurrier who returned to win Allowance race July 15 with a 97 Beyer Speed Figure. Instead of facing Rail Trip again in the Hollywood Gold Cup, he shorten up to one turn in the seven furlong Grade 1 Triple Bend Handicap and ran into his stable mate E Z Gentlemen who won with a perfect trip (saving ground and pressing slow first quarter). Although he finished three and a quarter lengths behind his stable mate SANGAREE actually ran the better race when you consider the amount of ground he lost running wide and the slow early fractions compromise this stalker. In that race he raced three wide down the backstretch as M One Rifle was pressed from the rail by eventual winner through a soft first quarter in 22.82 seconds. He began to commence his move into the far turn with a three wide run, entered the stretch four wide and completed the exacta in that highly rated event. He returns in only three weeks with a good work over the Del Mar Poly Track in 1:00.4 on July 26 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington stated “Last 4 furlongs in 48.1 waiting a bit on barnmate Excellent News (100.4) going home in his usual workmanlike fashion. Hard knocker looks the same.” After losing ground in his last start behind slow fractions he should get a perfect trip in the San Diego Handicap with speed to his inside and outside jockey Martin Pedroza should navigate this horse over the rail to save ground behind a honest early pace, patiently wait to make his bid, and pounce over a track-distance that favors his stalking running style. Through the conclusion of yesterday’s card there were nine route races from mile to mile and a sixteenth and the average lengths behind the leader at the first call is 2.8 and the average lengths behind the leader at second call is 1.4. That means SANGAREE and the rest of my three contenders will be in position early to make their runs when the early speed in this race collapses and makes for a great gambling race.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (5) SANGAREE to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 7-2 or better)
Main Exactas: 5-3, 5-7, 5-10. Small reverse for each.
My $40 Play
*$10 to WIN on (5) SANGAREE to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 7-2 or better) = $10
$6 Exacta part-wheel: 5 with 3, 7, 10 = $18
$4 Exacta part-wheel: 3, 7, 10 with 5 = $12
Total Wager: $40
*This win bet only is made if SANGAREE goes off at odds above 7-2. If he drops below those fair odds than make the following play.
$8 Exacta part-wheel: 5 with 3, 7, 10 = $24
$6 Exacta part-wheel: 3, 7, 10 with 5 = $18
Total Wager: $42
Sunday, July 25, 2010
Chris Ado's Sunday Del Mar Handicap: SUPER CARD
Christopher Ado’s Del Mar Handicap
Spot Play Selections, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies from Del Mar
Sunday July 25, 2010
By Christopher Ado
Today’s Action from Del Mar: I will highlight and play races 6, 7, 8, and 9. In addition I will suggest $60 into the Pick 4 (Races 6-9)
Race 6: California Dreamin Stakes, 1-1/16 Miles Turf, Three year olds and up
BRUCE’S DREAM (#8, 7-2) will be making his first start around two turns and at the distance of mile and sixteenth facing Graded Stakes winner and multiple stakes winner Bold Chieftain. Despite the latter having a stellar record at this distance (4/3-0-0) and having finished off the board only once in four starts over the Jimmy Durante Turf course (4/2-1-0), I believe that our top selection has more blue sky in front of him with only five starts and making his second start of this year this Atticus gelding can break through with a big performance this afternoon. This Mike Pupye trainee won his first three starts including two of them over this Del Mar turf course. After registering his third straight victory in a open Allowance N1X he stepped up in class in the Grade 3 Morvich last September at Santa Anita and suffered his first defeat finishing third beaten only two and three-quarter lengths in a highly rated event (104 Beyer) won for the second consecutive year by the fleet California Flag. In that race he was not asked for speed leaving the gate, was taken back towards the rear of the field, and settled in the two path as the eventual winner sprinted clear through a first quarter in 21.55 seconds and half mile in 43.04 seconds. He continued to be held back leaving the down the hill portion of the turf course when he was taken four wide, split rivals, and finished decently to get up for third behind favored gate to wire winner. The strength of that race was validated as the winner, California Flag, returned to win the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint with a Beyer Speed Figure of 105 and tenth place finisher Flashman’s Paper came back to win a $40,000 claiming event with a 84 Beyer Speed Figure. The gray or roan gelding was not seen again on the race track for over six months when he returned in Allowance N2X at Hollywood Park on June 25. He was sent off as the post time favorite at odds of 6-5 and showed new dimension in his one length victory. In that race he showed newfound early speed to press the leader Sky Victor as those two dueled through fractions of 23.50 for the first quarter and 46.83 seconds for half mile. With those slow early fractions it set up for a sprint to the wire and Bruce’s Dream finally shook free of Sky Victor approaching mid stretch and kicked it into another gear flying through the final furlong in a blistering 10.85 seconds. The improved early speed off the long layoff plus his ability finish powerfully will allow this home bred gelding to sit the perfect trip in this race. Two horses are stretching out from a sprint into a route, Triumphant Flight and Colgan’s Chip, with both horses vying for the early lead jockey Joe Talamo can get over from his outside post position to track that pair in a perfect spot and get the first jump on the morning line favorite Bold Chieftain. He will be making his second start following the long layoff and returned with two good work outs including dazzling National Turf’s Andy Harrington watch with a six furlong move on the turf course seven days ago in 1:12.3 that Andy gave him a B+ stating “Big drill right back finishing with power late in 49.0, 112.3 (23.3 LQ). Roan for Puype is feeling great these days.” With only five starts this gelding still has plenty of room to improvement and with his improved early speed, blistering late kick, and strong work out coming up into this race makes BRUCE’S DREAM a possible single to begin the Pick 4 and the Pick 6 that has a carryover of over $185,000.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (8) BRUCE’S DREAM to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 5-2 or better)
Main Exacta: 8-5. Small reverse only.
Small Exacta: 8-3. No reverse.
Race 7: Allowance N2X-Optional Claiming $62,500, 6 Furlongs, Three and up
GOLDEN WINNER (#4, 7-2) will be trying the Del Mar Poly Track for the first time as this dark bay or brown colt ships in from Northern California for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. This unbeaten son of More than Ready enters this race undefeated in two starts including a smashing six length victory over the conventional main track at Pleasanton on June 26. Although the quality of the competition he faced in both starts is questionable there are two main factors that persuaded me selecting this colt as my top choice. Firstly is the lack of quality early speed in this Allowance N2X as El Scorpio is the only dedicated front runner in this field and lastly both of his wins in Northern California were visually impressive. He made his career debut over the Golden Gate Tapeta surface on June 5 where he received plenty of support going off as the third choice at odds of 7-2 in the field of ten and he romped by six lengths. In that race he pressed the early pace in the three path with two other pace rivals, Kool N Quick and Absolute Magnitude, through quick early fractions of 21.51 seconds for opening quarter and 45.21 seconds for half mile. He shook free of those two pace rivals past the quarter pole, opened up a two and a half length lead at mid stretch and widen to win by six lengths as he was “never asked” according to the Daily Racing Form trouble comment. The two impressive parts about that victory was he won the early battle for the lead and the war and did it through swift early fractions. The two horses he dueled with, Kool N Quick and Absolute Magnitude, finished third beaten seven and half lengths and sixth beaten ten lengths. Next were the fractions of 21.51 and 45.21 seconds. The first quarter was the fastest of the seven one turn races on the June 5 program and his half mile fractions was the second fastest of seven sprints on the card. Instead of shipping to Southern California he remained in Northern California to face winners for the first time in Allowance N1X at Pleasanton on June 26 and he once again prevailed victorious in the same impressive manner just as his maiden victory. Trying the conventional main track for the first time and stretching out a sixteenth of a mile to today’s six furlong distance Golden Winner found him inside of a five horse speed battle from post position two with Move Over Marino, Richly Red, Point Lobos, and Senator Bob, through a quick first quarter in 22.17 seconds. He continued to battle for the lead from the inside with Richly Red as those sprinted through a half mile in 44.61 seconds, he shook free of his pace rivals past the quarter pole, opened up a two and half length at mid stretch, and kick clear to win by six lengths recording a career best 90 Beyer Speed Figure. The two parts that made that victory so impressive was the fact the four horses he dueled with finished third-fourth-fifth-seventh. The second is the fractions of that race with the final time. The 44.61 second half mile he set was the second fastest on the June 26 program and the final time of 1:08.91 was the fastest six furlongs on that card making Golden Winner’s win look even more impressive. He has returned with two easy maintaince work outs over the Golden Gate Tapeta surface to suggest he has held his form and his trainer, Jerry Hollendorfer, is off to a fast start in the first week of Del Mar winning at a 27% (3-for-11). With only El Scorpio as the other speed in this field look for Golden Winner to be pressed by the rival early, shake loose of him approaching the quarter pole, and if he duplicates his two wins in Northern California he will kick clear under Tyler Baze at a hint of a price to begin the final Pick 3 on the card. I will look to beat morning line favorite New Bay. Despite exiting the best race with the field’s fastest Beyer Speed Figures in the field his win June 6 was visually unimpressive as the first five place finishers were separated by only two and three-quarter lengths and returned to be a negative key race with the winner through fifth place finishers returning to finish off the board in their next start.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (4) GOLDEN WINNER to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 5-2 or better)
Main Exactas: 4-1 and 4-7. Small reverse for each.
Race 8: Grade II San Clemente Handicap, 1-Mile Turf, Three year old Fillies
SWITCH (#5, 6-1) is my long shot play to win this year’s San Clemente Handicap switching from the Cushion Track at Hollywood Park to the Jimmy Durante Turf course here at Del Mar. The daughter of Quiet American has really blossomed in her last two starts finishing a better than looked second in a very productive Grade III Railbird Stakes and than parlaying that runner-up effort with a victory over Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks winner Blind Luck. She will be making her first start off a seven week layoff but she has shown twice that she runs well fresh: she broke her maiden in her career debut last December and finished an excellent second to the previously unbeaten Tanda in the Grade III Railbird Stakes on May 9. Although she lost by a half length in that aforementioned latter event she lost more ground than the comment “3wd turn, rallied,” would indicate in the Daily Racing Form. Breaking from post position nine in a nine horse field Switch was rated off the slow first quarter in 23.08 seconds as she rated rate in fifth racing three wide off that slow pace. While the winner, Tanda, rode the rails to grab the lead into the far turn, Switch, was forced four wide into and around the far turn after a half mile in a tepid 45.64 seconds. She continued to lose ground into the stretch and covered her final furlong in 12.32 seconds to lose by a half length in a highly rated event (98 Beyer Speed Figure). When you combined the slow early pace and the wide trip that Switch encountered one could understand if she was best in this race. The strength of that race was validated when the third-place finisher, All Due Respect, came back to win Allowance N1X earning a 104 Beyer Speed Figure. The sixth place finisher returned to win the Manhattan Beach Stakes via disqualification and the seventh place finisher returned to win Allowance N1X. Also the winner Tanda returned to finish a better than looked third in the G1 Acorn at Belmont Park making the Railbird Stakes a mega “key” event. She tried back out to mile and a sixteenth in the Grade 2 Hollywood Oaks to tackle Blind Luck and although she received ten pounds from the favorite she was able to utilize her tactical speed and good trip en route to a length and a quarter victory. In that race she was hard held early saving ground into the first turn and down the backstretch as the leader Camille C set pokey early fractions 50.11 seconds for half mile and six furlongs in 1:14.50 seconds. She made a three wide move into the far turn to get the jump on the favorite, made the lead into the stretch with her right lead, switch to her left lead at mid stretch, and than back to her right lead to win going away over the 1-2 favorite. The strength of that victory has already been validated as the runner-up returned to win the Delaware Oaks and the fourth-place finisher Antares World returned to run an excellent second beaten length and a quarter in the Grade 1 American Oaks on July 3 at Hollywood Park. She has returned with five works including her last two work outs over the Hollywood Park turf course that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with grades of B+. She worked six furlongs in 1:14.4 on July 11 where he stated “M. Garcia up, bounced out of her last race terrific, finishing with spark and galloping out even better in 50.1, 114.4 out in 127.1. Doing great,” and she came right back seven days later to work seven furlongs in 1:26.2 stating she “was really striding out nicely over the turf, fluid and strong for the Sadler barn in 1:02.1, 1:26.2. Again very strong.” Her affinity for the turf course should come as no surprise because her dam, Antoniette, recorded five wins from seven starts on the turf. She has excellent tactical speed to sit the perfect trip as she projects to sit in behind Southern Fireball who is stretching out from a sprint into a route and expected leader Crisis of Spirit. In a competitive renewal she is the highest price of my contenders and enters this race ready for a peak performance at a hint of a price.
Wagering Strategies
Play the (5) SWITCH to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 4-1 or better)
Main Exactas: 5-1, 5-2, 5-6. Small reverse for each.
Race 9: Maiden Special Weight, 5-½ Furlongs, Two year olds
HE BE FIRE N ICE (#8, 9-2) was dismissed in his career debut on July 4 at odds of 33-1 and if you look at strictly finish positions he ran to his odds finishing sixth in a eight horse field. However this Pico Perdomo trainee ran sneaky well in that race versus open maiden special weight company. The Unusual Heat California bred was dismissed in his career debut because his sire, Unusual Heat, wins a low percentage of his first starters and had worked only in average manner according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington. He covered five furlongs in 1:00.3 on June 9 where Andy gave him a C+ stating that “Flores up, shoved inside barn mate Red Tesla trying his best in a slower than given 36.2, 1:01.2. Eh,” and witness his half mile work in 47.4 on June 24 where he commented that this gray’s “tail flipped while working inside barn mate Red Tesla (47.4) going 36.2, 48.1. Let’s see one.” Without a win early pedigree and average work outs leading up to his career debut one could understand why he was dismissed at 33-1 and he ran much better than his “Off slowly, no rally,” comment found in your Daily Racing Form. In that race he broke about two lengths slow at the start be away dead last, recovered to trail the field in the two path early, made a nice move leaving the half mile pole, and was actually able to sustain that move to the quarter pole where he flattened out and passed tired rivals through the stretch to lose by only six lengths in a highly rated affair (76 Beyer Speed Figure) won by Dependable. He might have bled in that race because he makes his second career start with lasix and takes the blinkers off for the first time. He drops into this class level for the first time with improved work outs according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington as he praised his last two work outs with grades of B-. He worked a half mile in 48.1 on July 14 where Andy caught him trying “hard on this drill flashing some dig late in 36.1, 48.0 (11.4 L 1/8TH). Maybe figuring things out some,” and concluded his work tab with a three furlong blow out from the gate in 35.3 where Andy commented he “was moving well by the stands here in 24.4, 36.2 going under some late restraint to the end. Suspect this one will be more focused in second start.” Last year’s Eclipse Award for top apprentice Christian Santiago Reyes climbs aboard this gray or roan colt for the first time and dropping in class, exiting the best race, and with improved work outs I look for HE BE FIRE N ICE to spring a minor upset for trainer Pico Perdomo who conditioned Gourmet Girl to win the Eclipse Award for older filly or mare.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (8) HE BE FIRE N ICE to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 7-2 or better)
Main Exactas: 8-3, 8-4, 8-7 Small reverse for each.
**Del Mar Race 6 Pick 4 **
Race 6: (5) Bold Chieftain (8) BRUCE’S DREAM
Race 7: (1) New Believer, (4) GOLDEN WINNER, (7) Afleet Ruler
Race 8: (2) Fortunia, (5) Switch, (6) Evening Jewel
Race 9: (3) Classic Bobby, (4) Merlin Z, (7) Storddim, (8) He Be Fire N Ice
Ticket A: 8 / 1, 4, 7 / 2, 5, 6 / 3, 4, 7, 8 = 1 x 3 x 3 x 4 x $1 = $36
Ticket B: 5, 8 / 4 / 2, 5, 6 / 3, 4, 7, 8 = 2 x 1 x 3 x 4 x $1 = $24
Total Wager: $60
** With Del Mar implementing a $0.50 increment for the Pick 4 you can cut the cost of the ticket above by playing it for $0.50 making it a $30 play instead of $60. Wager within your comfort level.
Spot Play Selections, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies from Del Mar
Sunday July 25, 2010
By Christopher Ado
Today’s Action from Del Mar: I will highlight and play races 6, 7, 8, and 9. In addition I will suggest $60 into the Pick 4 (Races 6-9)
Race 6: California Dreamin Stakes, 1-1/16 Miles Turf, Three year olds and up
BRUCE’S DREAM (#8, 7-2) will be making his first start around two turns and at the distance of mile and sixteenth facing Graded Stakes winner and multiple stakes winner Bold Chieftain. Despite the latter having a stellar record at this distance (4/3-0-0) and having finished off the board only once in four starts over the Jimmy Durante Turf course (4/2-1-0), I believe that our top selection has more blue sky in front of him with only five starts and making his second start of this year this Atticus gelding can break through with a big performance this afternoon. This Mike Pupye trainee won his first three starts including two of them over this Del Mar turf course. After registering his third straight victory in a open Allowance N1X he stepped up in class in the Grade 3 Morvich last September at Santa Anita and suffered his first defeat finishing third beaten only two and three-quarter lengths in a highly rated event (104 Beyer) won for the second consecutive year by the fleet California Flag. In that race he was not asked for speed leaving the gate, was taken back towards the rear of the field, and settled in the two path as the eventual winner sprinted clear through a first quarter in 21.55 seconds and half mile in 43.04 seconds. He continued to be held back leaving the down the hill portion of the turf course when he was taken four wide, split rivals, and finished decently to get up for third behind favored gate to wire winner. The strength of that race was validated as the winner, California Flag, returned to win the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint with a Beyer Speed Figure of 105 and tenth place finisher Flashman’s Paper came back to win a $40,000 claiming event with a 84 Beyer Speed Figure. The gray or roan gelding was not seen again on the race track for over six months when he returned in Allowance N2X at Hollywood Park on June 25. He was sent off as the post time favorite at odds of 6-5 and showed new dimension in his one length victory. In that race he showed newfound early speed to press the leader Sky Victor as those two dueled through fractions of 23.50 for the first quarter and 46.83 seconds for half mile. With those slow early fractions it set up for a sprint to the wire and Bruce’s Dream finally shook free of Sky Victor approaching mid stretch and kicked it into another gear flying through the final furlong in a blistering 10.85 seconds. The improved early speed off the long layoff plus his ability finish powerfully will allow this home bred gelding to sit the perfect trip in this race. Two horses are stretching out from a sprint into a route, Triumphant Flight and Colgan’s Chip, with both horses vying for the early lead jockey Joe Talamo can get over from his outside post position to track that pair in a perfect spot and get the first jump on the morning line favorite Bold Chieftain. He will be making his second start following the long layoff and returned with two good work outs including dazzling National Turf’s Andy Harrington watch with a six furlong move on the turf course seven days ago in 1:12.3 that Andy gave him a B+ stating “Big drill right back finishing with power late in 49.0, 112.3 (23.3 LQ). Roan for Puype is feeling great these days.” With only five starts this gelding still has plenty of room to improvement and with his improved early speed, blistering late kick, and strong work out coming up into this race makes BRUCE’S DREAM a possible single to begin the Pick 4 and the Pick 6 that has a carryover of over $185,000.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (8) BRUCE’S DREAM to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 5-2 or better)
Main Exacta: 8-5. Small reverse only.
Small Exacta: 8-3. No reverse.
Race 7: Allowance N2X-Optional Claiming $62,500, 6 Furlongs, Three and up
GOLDEN WINNER (#4, 7-2) will be trying the Del Mar Poly Track for the first time as this dark bay or brown colt ships in from Northern California for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. This unbeaten son of More than Ready enters this race undefeated in two starts including a smashing six length victory over the conventional main track at Pleasanton on June 26. Although the quality of the competition he faced in both starts is questionable there are two main factors that persuaded me selecting this colt as my top choice. Firstly is the lack of quality early speed in this Allowance N2X as El Scorpio is the only dedicated front runner in this field and lastly both of his wins in Northern California were visually impressive. He made his career debut over the Golden Gate Tapeta surface on June 5 where he received plenty of support going off as the third choice at odds of 7-2 in the field of ten and he romped by six lengths. In that race he pressed the early pace in the three path with two other pace rivals, Kool N Quick and Absolute Magnitude, through quick early fractions of 21.51 seconds for opening quarter and 45.21 seconds for half mile. He shook free of those two pace rivals past the quarter pole, opened up a two and a half length lead at mid stretch and widen to win by six lengths as he was “never asked” according to the Daily Racing Form trouble comment. The two impressive parts about that victory was he won the early battle for the lead and the war and did it through swift early fractions. The two horses he dueled with, Kool N Quick and Absolute Magnitude, finished third beaten seven and half lengths and sixth beaten ten lengths. Next were the fractions of 21.51 and 45.21 seconds. The first quarter was the fastest of the seven one turn races on the June 5 program and his half mile fractions was the second fastest of seven sprints on the card. Instead of shipping to Southern California he remained in Northern California to face winners for the first time in Allowance N1X at Pleasanton on June 26 and he once again prevailed victorious in the same impressive manner just as his maiden victory. Trying the conventional main track for the first time and stretching out a sixteenth of a mile to today’s six furlong distance Golden Winner found him inside of a five horse speed battle from post position two with Move Over Marino, Richly Red, Point Lobos, and Senator Bob, through a quick first quarter in 22.17 seconds. He continued to battle for the lead from the inside with Richly Red as those sprinted through a half mile in 44.61 seconds, he shook free of his pace rivals past the quarter pole, opened up a two and half length at mid stretch, and kick clear to win by six lengths recording a career best 90 Beyer Speed Figure. The two parts that made that victory so impressive was the fact the four horses he dueled with finished third-fourth-fifth-seventh. The second is the fractions of that race with the final time. The 44.61 second half mile he set was the second fastest on the June 26 program and the final time of 1:08.91 was the fastest six furlongs on that card making Golden Winner’s win look even more impressive. He has returned with two easy maintaince work outs over the Golden Gate Tapeta surface to suggest he has held his form and his trainer, Jerry Hollendorfer, is off to a fast start in the first week of Del Mar winning at a 27% (3-for-11). With only El Scorpio as the other speed in this field look for Golden Winner to be pressed by the rival early, shake loose of him approaching the quarter pole, and if he duplicates his two wins in Northern California he will kick clear under Tyler Baze at a hint of a price to begin the final Pick 3 on the card. I will look to beat morning line favorite New Bay. Despite exiting the best race with the field’s fastest Beyer Speed Figures in the field his win June 6 was visually unimpressive as the first five place finishers were separated by only two and three-quarter lengths and returned to be a negative key race with the winner through fifth place finishers returning to finish off the board in their next start.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (4) GOLDEN WINNER to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 5-2 or better)
Main Exactas: 4-1 and 4-7. Small reverse for each.
Race 8: Grade II San Clemente Handicap, 1-Mile Turf, Three year old Fillies
SWITCH (#5, 6-1) is my long shot play to win this year’s San Clemente Handicap switching from the Cushion Track at Hollywood Park to the Jimmy Durante Turf course here at Del Mar. The daughter of Quiet American has really blossomed in her last two starts finishing a better than looked second in a very productive Grade III Railbird Stakes and than parlaying that runner-up effort with a victory over Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks winner Blind Luck. She will be making her first start off a seven week layoff but she has shown twice that she runs well fresh: she broke her maiden in her career debut last December and finished an excellent second to the previously unbeaten Tanda in the Grade III Railbird Stakes on May 9. Although she lost by a half length in that aforementioned latter event she lost more ground than the comment “3wd turn, rallied,” would indicate in the Daily Racing Form. Breaking from post position nine in a nine horse field Switch was rated off the slow first quarter in 23.08 seconds as she rated rate in fifth racing three wide off that slow pace. While the winner, Tanda, rode the rails to grab the lead into the far turn, Switch, was forced four wide into and around the far turn after a half mile in a tepid 45.64 seconds. She continued to lose ground into the stretch and covered her final furlong in 12.32 seconds to lose by a half length in a highly rated event (98 Beyer Speed Figure). When you combined the slow early pace and the wide trip that Switch encountered one could understand if she was best in this race. The strength of that race was validated when the third-place finisher, All Due Respect, came back to win Allowance N1X earning a 104 Beyer Speed Figure. The sixth place finisher returned to win the Manhattan Beach Stakes via disqualification and the seventh place finisher returned to win Allowance N1X. Also the winner Tanda returned to finish a better than looked third in the G1 Acorn at Belmont Park making the Railbird Stakes a mega “key” event. She tried back out to mile and a sixteenth in the Grade 2 Hollywood Oaks to tackle Blind Luck and although she received ten pounds from the favorite she was able to utilize her tactical speed and good trip en route to a length and a quarter victory. In that race she was hard held early saving ground into the first turn and down the backstretch as the leader Camille C set pokey early fractions 50.11 seconds for half mile and six furlongs in 1:14.50 seconds. She made a three wide move into the far turn to get the jump on the favorite, made the lead into the stretch with her right lead, switch to her left lead at mid stretch, and than back to her right lead to win going away over the 1-2 favorite. The strength of that victory has already been validated as the runner-up returned to win the Delaware Oaks and the fourth-place finisher Antares World returned to run an excellent second beaten length and a quarter in the Grade 1 American Oaks on July 3 at Hollywood Park. She has returned with five works including her last two work outs over the Hollywood Park turf course that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with grades of B+. She worked six furlongs in 1:14.4 on July 11 where he stated “M. Garcia up, bounced out of her last race terrific, finishing with spark and galloping out even better in 50.1, 114.4 out in 127.1. Doing great,” and she came right back seven days later to work seven furlongs in 1:26.2 stating she “was really striding out nicely over the turf, fluid and strong for the Sadler barn in 1:02.1, 1:26.2. Again very strong.” Her affinity for the turf course should come as no surprise because her dam, Antoniette, recorded five wins from seven starts on the turf. She has excellent tactical speed to sit the perfect trip as she projects to sit in behind Southern Fireball who is stretching out from a sprint into a route and expected leader Crisis of Spirit. In a competitive renewal she is the highest price of my contenders and enters this race ready for a peak performance at a hint of a price.
Wagering Strategies
Play the (5) SWITCH to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 4-1 or better)
Main Exactas: 5-1, 5-2, 5-6. Small reverse for each.
Race 9: Maiden Special Weight, 5-½ Furlongs, Two year olds
HE BE FIRE N ICE (#8, 9-2) was dismissed in his career debut on July 4 at odds of 33-1 and if you look at strictly finish positions he ran to his odds finishing sixth in a eight horse field. However this Pico Perdomo trainee ran sneaky well in that race versus open maiden special weight company. The Unusual Heat California bred was dismissed in his career debut because his sire, Unusual Heat, wins a low percentage of his first starters and had worked only in average manner according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington. He covered five furlongs in 1:00.3 on June 9 where Andy gave him a C+ stating that “Flores up, shoved inside barn mate Red Tesla trying his best in a slower than given 36.2, 1:01.2. Eh,” and witness his half mile work in 47.4 on June 24 where he commented that this gray’s “tail flipped while working inside barn mate Red Tesla (47.4) going 36.2, 48.1. Let’s see one.” Without a win early pedigree and average work outs leading up to his career debut one could understand why he was dismissed at 33-1 and he ran much better than his “Off slowly, no rally,” comment found in your Daily Racing Form. In that race he broke about two lengths slow at the start be away dead last, recovered to trail the field in the two path early, made a nice move leaving the half mile pole, and was actually able to sustain that move to the quarter pole where he flattened out and passed tired rivals through the stretch to lose by only six lengths in a highly rated affair (76 Beyer Speed Figure) won by Dependable. He might have bled in that race because he makes his second career start with lasix and takes the blinkers off for the first time. He drops into this class level for the first time with improved work outs according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington as he praised his last two work outs with grades of B-. He worked a half mile in 48.1 on July 14 where Andy caught him trying “hard on this drill flashing some dig late in 36.1, 48.0 (11.4 L 1/8TH). Maybe figuring things out some,” and concluded his work tab with a three furlong blow out from the gate in 35.3 where Andy commented he “was moving well by the stands here in 24.4, 36.2 going under some late restraint to the end. Suspect this one will be more focused in second start.” Last year’s Eclipse Award for top apprentice Christian Santiago Reyes climbs aboard this gray or roan colt for the first time and dropping in class, exiting the best race, and with improved work outs I look for HE BE FIRE N ICE to spring a minor upset for trainer Pico Perdomo who conditioned Gourmet Girl to win the Eclipse Award for older filly or mare.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (8) HE BE FIRE N ICE to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 7-2 or better)
Main Exactas: 8-3, 8-4, 8-7 Small reverse for each.
**Del Mar Race 6 Pick 4 **
Race 6: (5) Bold Chieftain (8) BRUCE’S DREAM
Race 7: (1) New Believer, (4) GOLDEN WINNER, (7) Afleet Ruler
Race 8: (2) Fortunia, (5) Switch, (6) Evening Jewel
Race 9: (3) Classic Bobby, (4) Merlin Z, (7) Storddim, (8) He Be Fire N Ice
Ticket A: 8 / 1, 4, 7 / 2, 5, 6 / 3, 4, 7, 8 = 1 x 3 x 3 x 4 x $1 = $36
Ticket B: 5, 8 / 4 / 2, 5, 6 / 3, 4, 7, 8 = 2 x 1 x 3 x 4 x $1 = $24
Total Wager: $60
** With Del Mar implementing a $0.50 increment for the Pick 4 you can cut the cost of the ticket above by playing it for $0.50 making it a $30 play instead of $60. Wager within your comfort level.
Saturday, July 24, 2010
July 24 Del Mar Handicap
Christopher Ado’s Del Mar Handicap
Spot Play Selections, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies from Del Mar
Saturday July 24, 2010
By Christopher Ado
Today’s Action from Del Mar: I will highlight and play races 6, 7, 8, and 9. In addition I will put $27 into a Pick 3 (Races 6-9)
Race 6: Osunitas Stakes, 1-1/16 Miles Turf, Fillies and mares
LILLY FA POOTZ (#10, 8-1) must break from outside post position eight in a ten horse field leaving the chute at Del Mar which is not a easy task. However the post can be compensated by the fact there appears to be a sufficient amount of early speed to set up for this mare’s late kick and exit’s the best races as the subsequent performances of the horses she has been running against prove that this Jerry Hollendorfer trainee can pull off the mild upset. Since being claimed back in December 2009 and being placed on the turf she has finished first or second in all six turf starts but her form reached a new level in three starts over the Inglewood turf course. In her May 13 start she stalked the uncontested leader Zillia in a comfortable spot in fourth behind moderate early pace. She swept up three wide around the far turn, took command of the lead approaching mid stretch, and was run down by the winner Turning Top to lose by a neck. Although that race earned a below average Performance Rating of 105 (Par Figure 116) the strength of that race was validated when the winner Turning Top returned to win the Redondo Beach Stakes and the Grade III Beverly Hills Stakes. The fifth place finisher Talktoomuch returned to win a $40,000 claiming event in her next start. Next she returned three weeks later on June 4 to run in the same Allowance N2X and lost by a half length in another productive “key” race. In that race she was ranked early stalking the pace in a comfortable spot on the rail early. She continued to race in mid pack behind the measured early pace set by Zillia. She raced on the rail into the far turn, entered the stretch three wide, and rallied to miss by a half length to the pace presser and winner It Tiz earning another Performance Rating of 105 covering her final quarter of a mile in 23.26 seconds. The strength of that race was validated when the winner returned to win the Le Cle Stakes and third place finisher Zillia returned to finish second beaten only a nose in Allowance N2X here at Del Mar on July 21. After consecutive runner-up efforts at the Allowance N2X her consistency was rewarded with a one length victory on June 27 at this same mile and a sixteenth distance defeating subsequent next time out winner Ruffled Feathers covering her final five-sixteenths in 29.35 seconds. She returns in four weeks with three maintenance works in the interim that suggests she has held her form. Also the pace of this restricted stakes race should be swift with early pace types such as Ruination, Burg Burg, Rosey de Megeve, and Theodora possessing early or prompting early speed ensuring an honest pace for the stalkers and closers. This dark bay mare has finished first or second in seven or eight starts this year and with her potent late kick she can mow down her rivals under Joe Talamo at a hint of a price. Although she is drawn poorly in post position eight the morning line price of 8-1 compensates for the risk.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (10) LILLY FA POOTZ to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 5-1 or better)
Main Exactas: 10-2, 10-9, 10-11. Small reverse for each.
Race 7: Maiden Special Weight, 5-½ Furlongs, Two year olds
PRAYER FOR RELIEF (#7, 6-1) is my top choice in the first open two year old maiden race of the season at Del Mar. This dark bay or brown colt by Jump Start has all the ingredients one would look for in a winning first time starter. He owns incredible win early breeding for a two-year old, is trained by hottest conditioner of two year old maidens this year, has trained in smart fashion for his career, and because of the depth of this field this could be overlooked in the wagering at a hint of a price. The dam of Prayer for Relief, Sparkin Lil, won six of twenty-eight starts in her career but more importantly she was very successful as a two year old. From nine starts as two year old Sparkin Lil won three times and she has passed on her preciousness to her progeny. From four foals to race three are winners including One More Lillian who broke her maiden as a two year old. In addition to being bred to win early Prayer for Relief is trained by Bob Baffert who has been the hottest trainer of two year old this year. At the recently concluded Hollywood Park spring-summer meeting he started six two year olds making their career debut with four of them visiting the winner circle with one second and one fourth for a gaudy 67% win rate. Last year at Del Mar trainer Bob Baffert connected twice with debuting two year olds with Tiny Woods in the first two year old maiden race of 2009 and Always a Princess. Not only is this dark bay or brown colt bred to win early, trained by the hottest conditioner of two year olds on this circuit but also has trained in smart fashion up to his debut according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington. He worked five furlongs from the gate in 1:00 flat on July 9 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington raved with a B- stating “Looked a tad best late with barnmate Blazing Along, both chasing the very talented A Z Warrior in 24.0, 47.1, 100.1. No disgrace here; seems to be a fit.” That work was flattered when A Z Warrior broke his maiden in his career debut at Hollywood Park on July 15. Finally he concluded his work tab with a best of twenty-five five furlong move in 59.2 on July 15 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave him a B- stating “Not bad at all finishing without much ask with a worker in 35.2, 59.3. Has try in him.” Although the barn’s go to rider, Martin Garcia, is aboard our third preference, Rock So Hard, jockey Martin Pedorza has become a excellent alternative for this barn. He has won nine of his last thirty four starts for this trainer in the past year for an excellent 26% win rate and was aboard first time starter Go On Babe on opening day to break his maiden for these same connections. From my four contenders Prayer for Relief was the longest price of them and should make a good account for himself because of his win early breeding, his trainers record with two year olds this year, and his good work pattern leading up to his debut all suggest Prayer for Relief is primed to come out running out of the box in his first start.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (7) PRAYER FOR RELIEF to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 4-1 or better)
Main Exactas: 7-4, 7-6, 7-9. Small reverse for each.
Race 8: Grade I Eddie Read Handicap, 1-1/8 Miles, Three year olds and up
VICTOR’S CRY (#2, 5-1) is seeking his second straight Grade I event this year in today’s feature race at Del Mar also trying the distance of mile and a eighth for the first time. Despite the distance issue this son of Street Cry gets a ready made pace scenario to flatter his closing kick and will be able to save every inch of ground as he is drawn in post position two that will enable jockey Corey Nakatini to conserve this horse’s energy and produce late kick. This Eoin Harty trainee will be making his first start off a seven week layoff but this dark bay or brown colt has shown twice in his career that he runs well fresh. He won his only start over this Del Mar turf course exactly one year ago at 7-1 when he was return off a two hundred and forty-five day layoff and he made his five year old seasonal debut a successful one when he returned from a one hundred and sixteen layoff on February 3 to win a Allowance event down the hillside turf course at odds of 8-1. In that race he found himself in the rear of the field as the dueling leaders Get Funky and Liberian Freighter established wicked fractions of 21.02 seconds for opening quarter and 42.92 seconds for half mile. He was taken outside for the stretch drive and rallied past the leader Cherokee Heaven to post a half length victory covering his final five-sixteenths in a snappy 27.02 seconds. Next he returned in the Joe Hernandez Stakes that was rained off to the main track and he finished an even fourth over a synthetic surface that he detest (8/1-1-1) versus the turf course (9/4-1-1). He returned to the turf course in the Grade 3 San Simeon Stakes on April 17 and finished second to down the hill specialist Mr. Gruff (6/5-1-0). Despite the latter recording his fifth victory at that distance this dark bay or brown colt was compromised by the lack of early pace. He was taken back towards the rear of the field as Mr. Gruff and Trumpet Player Jay walked thru a first quarter in 22.52 seconds. Despite this disadvantage pace scenario this ridging was able to do split rivals through the stretch to get up for second behind the 4-5 favored winner. He was sent off at odds of 21-1 when he stretched back out to one mile in the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile and with an excellent ground saving ride and trip by jockey Corey Nakatini this horse able to garner his first Grade I victory running down a top class horse in the now retired Karelian. Breaking from post position two he was able to go over towards the rail going to the first turn and saved ground through the first six furlongs as Mr. Gruff established a crisp early pace of 46.05 for half mile and six furlongs in 1:09.20 seconds. He was taken three wide entering the stretch and ran down Karelian to win by a head covering his final quarter of a mile in 23.14 seconds. Before being retired Karelian had won the Tampa Bay Stakes defeating subsequent Grade 1 Man O’ War winner and last year’s Eclipse Award older and turf male Gio Ponti. Also he won the Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile at Keeneland. Next to defeating a top rival the strength of Shoemaker Mile was validated as the sixth-place finisher Global Hunter returned to win the Grade 2 American Handicap in his next start. He returns from a seven week layoff with consecutive work outs including an easy five furlong move over the Del Mar turf course in 1:02.3 on July 19 that was maintenance move for this horse. With Acclimation fleeing post position four to go straight for the lead with Enriched not too far away and The Usual Q.T tracking that pair before commencing his move into the far turn that will allow Victor’s Cry to bide his time ahead of Loup Breton and get first run towards the quarter pole and unleash that late kick. Jockey Corey Nakatini won this race last year with Global Hunter and we will see if can go back to back at another price.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (2) VICTOR’S CRY to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 7-2 or better)
Main Exacta Boxes: 2-3 and 2-5
Race 9: Claiming $12,500 to $10,500, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and mares
ASH FORK (#7, 8-1) is a three-year old Rocky Bar filly that will be making her second start at this condition and dropping from two open claiming events into this restricted level. The dark bay or brown filly exit’s a pair of below average claiming events in her last two starts at Hollywood Park finishing third in a $20,000 claiming event on May 27 and came back to split the field in fifth on June 24. In the former event she had no real excuse tiring to finish third beaten two lengths at odds of 9-1 in a race that earned par figure of 90. In that race he was able to coast to the early lead and establish a sensible early pace through a first quarter mile in 22.45 seconds and sped through a half mile in a leisurely 45.89 seconds. She was tackled Miss Olivia K at mid stretch and weaken in the final furlong to third losing by two lengths. She dropped one more level on June 24 and managed to split her field crossing the wire fifth in another below average race for the level (Performance Rating 87). However the subsequent performances of the horses in that race prove that race was a lot stronger than the final time speed figure would indicate. In that race she was out run for the early lead and settled in mid pack saving ground in sixth as Blind Optimism was able to get away with a first quarter in 22.31 seconds. She continued saving ground on the far turn, angled out two wide entering the stretch and lacked a rally to finish in mid pack beaten five and a quarter lengths. Despite the below average speed figure the race has proven to be a very productive event. The winner, Frequent Fame, returned on July 18 to win for $20,000 claiming level. The third-place finisher Pretty Kinzie returned on July 2 to win by a length for $10,000 claiming price. Lastly the sixth place finisher Warren’s Swap Fox returned on July 22 here at Del Mar and won for a $16,000 claiming level. As you can see the performances of the winner and two also ran in the field make this a “key” race. This Arizona bred filly has come back with a maintenance half mile move in 48.1 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington commented “On own for Mullins working a maintenance 1/2 mile in 24.0, 48.1. Looking for level around here.” Though she is winless in three starts at this six furlong distance she does have a versatile running style as she broke her maiden contesting the early pace or sitting just off the early pace and in a field that does not have a plethora of early speed look for this filly to sit on or near modest early fractions. Exiting the best race, dropping into this restricted class level, and having the necessary tactical speed to sit close and pounce makes ASH FORK our best long shot bet on the first Saturday program of Del Mar.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (7) ASH FORK to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 6-1 or better)
Main Exactas: 7-2, 7-5, 7-6. Small reverse for each.
Del Mar Race 6 Pick 3
Race 6: (9) U R All That I Am, (10) LILLY FA POOTZ, (11) Restless Soul
Race 7: (4) Rock So Hard, (7) PRAYER FOR RELIEF , (9) Just Imagine
Race 8: (2) VICTOR’S CRY, (3) The Usual Q.T, (5) Loup Breton
Ticket 1: 10 / 4, 7, 9 / 2, 3, 5 = 1 x 3 x 3 x $1 = $9
Ticket 2: 9, 10, 11 / 7 / 2, 3, 5 = 3 x 1 x 3 x $1 = $9
Ticket 3: 9, 10, 11 / 4, 7, 9 / 2 = 3 x 3 x 1 x $1 = $9
Total Wager: $27
Spot Play Selections, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies from Del Mar
Saturday July 24, 2010
By Christopher Ado
Today’s Action from Del Mar: I will highlight and play races 6, 7, 8, and 9. In addition I will put $27 into a Pick 3 (Races 6-9)
Race 6: Osunitas Stakes, 1-1/16 Miles Turf, Fillies and mares
LILLY FA POOTZ (#10, 8-1) must break from outside post position eight in a ten horse field leaving the chute at Del Mar which is not a easy task. However the post can be compensated by the fact there appears to be a sufficient amount of early speed to set up for this mare’s late kick and exit’s the best races as the subsequent performances of the horses she has been running against prove that this Jerry Hollendorfer trainee can pull off the mild upset. Since being claimed back in December 2009 and being placed on the turf she has finished first or second in all six turf starts but her form reached a new level in three starts over the Inglewood turf course. In her May 13 start she stalked the uncontested leader Zillia in a comfortable spot in fourth behind moderate early pace. She swept up three wide around the far turn, took command of the lead approaching mid stretch, and was run down by the winner Turning Top to lose by a neck. Although that race earned a below average Performance Rating of 105 (Par Figure 116) the strength of that race was validated when the winner Turning Top returned to win the Redondo Beach Stakes and the Grade III Beverly Hills Stakes. The fifth place finisher Talktoomuch returned to win a $40,000 claiming event in her next start. Next she returned three weeks later on June 4 to run in the same Allowance N2X and lost by a half length in another productive “key” race. In that race she was ranked early stalking the pace in a comfortable spot on the rail early. She continued to race in mid pack behind the measured early pace set by Zillia. She raced on the rail into the far turn, entered the stretch three wide, and rallied to miss by a half length to the pace presser and winner It Tiz earning another Performance Rating of 105 covering her final quarter of a mile in 23.26 seconds. The strength of that race was validated when the winner returned to win the Le Cle Stakes and third place finisher Zillia returned to finish second beaten only a nose in Allowance N2X here at Del Mar on July 21. After consecutive runner-up efforts at the Allowance N2X her consistency was rewarded with a one length victory on June 27 at this same mile and a sixteenth distance defeating subsequent next time out winner Ruffled Feathers covering her final five-sixteenths in 29.35 seconds. She returns in four weeks with three maintenance works in the interim that suggests she has held her form. Also the pace of this restricted stakes race should be swift with early pace types such as Ruination, Burg Burg, Rosey de Megeve, and Theodora possessing early or prompting early speed ensuring an honest pace for the stalkers and closers. This dark bay mare has finished first or second in seven or eight starts this year and with her potent late kick she can mow down her rivals under Joe Talamo at a hint of a price. Although she is drawn poorly in post position eight the morning line price of 8-1 compensates for the risk.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (10) LILLY FA POOTZ to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 5-1 or better)
Main Exactas: 10-2, 10-9, 10-11. Small reverse for each.
Race 7: Maiden Special Weight, 5-½ Furlongs, Two year olds
PRAYER FOR RELIEF (#7, 6-1) is my top choice in the first open two year old maiden race of the season at Del Mar. This dark bay or brown colt by Jump Start has all the ingredients one would look for in a winning first time starter. He owns incredible win early breeding for a two-year old, is trained by hottest conditioner of two year old maidens this year, has trained in smart fashion for his career, and because of the depth of this field this could be overlooked in the wagering at a hint of a price. The dam of Prayer for Relief, Sparkin Lil, won six of twenty-eight starts in her career but more importantly she was very successful as a two year old. From nine starts as two year old Sparkin Lil won three times and she has passed on her preciousness to her progeny. From four foals to race three are winners including One More Lillian who broke her maiden as a two year old. In addition to being bred to win early Prayer for Relief is trained by Bob Baffert who has been the hottest trainer of two year old this year. At the recently concluded Hollywood Park spring-summer meeting he started six two year olds making their career debut with four of them visiting the winner circle with one second and one fourth for a gaudy 67% win rate. Last year at Del Mar trainer Bob Baffert connected twice with debuting two year olds with Tiny Woods in the first two year old maiden race of 2009 and Always a Princess. Not only is this dark bay or brown colt bred to win early, trained by the hottest conditioner of two year olds on this circuit but also has trained in smart fashion up to his debut according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington. He worked five furlongs from the gate in 1:00 flat on July 9 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington raved with a B- stating “Looked a tad best late with barnmate Blazing Along, both chasing the very talented A Z Warrior in 24.0, 47.1, 100.1. No disgrace here; seems to be a fit.” That work was flattered when A Z Warrior broke his maiden in his career debut at Hollywood Park on July 15. Finally he concluded his work tab with a best of twenty-five five furlong move in 59.2 on July 15 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave him a B- stating “Not bad at all finishing without much ask with a worker in 35.2, 59.3. Has try in him.” Although the barn’s go to rider, Martin Garcia, is aboard our third preference, Rock So Hard, jockey Martin Pedorza has become a excellent alternative for this barn. He has won nine of his last thirty four starts for this trainer in the past year for an excellent 26% win rate and was aboard first time starter Go On Babe on opening day to break his maiden for these same connections. From my four contenders Prayer for Relief was the longest price of them and should make a good account for himself because of his win early breeding, his trainers record with two year olds this year, and his good work pattern leading up to his debut all suggest Prayer for Relief is primed to come out running out of the box in his first start.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (7) PRAYER FOR RELIEF to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 4-1 or better)
Main Exactas: 7-4, 7-6, 7-9. Small reverse for each.
Race 8: Grade I Eddie Read Handicap, 1-1/8 Miles, Three year olds and up
VICTOR’S CRY (#2, 5-1) is seeking his second straight Grade I event this year in today’s feature race at Del Mar also trying the distance of mile and a eighth for the first time. Despite the distance issue this son of Street Cry gets a ready made pace scenario to flatter his closing kick and will be able to save every inch of ground as he is drawn in post position two that will enable jockey Corey Nakatini to conserve this horse’s energy and produce late kick. This Eoin Harty trainee will be making his first start off a seven week layoff but this dark bay or brown colt has shown twice in his career that he runs well fresh. He won his only start over this Del Mar turf course exactly one year ago at 7-1 when he was return off a two hundred and forty-five day layoff and he made his five year old seasonal debut a successful one when he returned from a one hundred and sixteen layoff on February 3 to win a Allowance event down the hillside turf course at odds of 8-1. In that race he found himself in the rear of the field as the dueling leaders Get Funky and Liberian Freighter established wicked fractions of 21.02 seconds for opening quarter and 42.92 seconds for half mile. He was taken outside for the stretch drive and rallied past the leader Cherokee Heaven to post a half length victory covering his final five-sixteenths in a snappy 27.02 seconds. Next he returned in the Joe Hernandez Stakes that was rained off to the main track and he finished an even fourth over a synthetic surface that he detest (8/1-1-1) versus the turf course (9/4-1-1). He returned to the turf course in the Grade 3 San Simeon Stakes on April 17 and finished second to down the hill specialist Mr. Gruff (6/5-1-0). Despite the latter recording his fifth victory at that distance this dark bay or brown colt was compromised by the lack of early pace. He was taken back towards the rear of the field as Mr. Gruff and Trumpet Player Jay walked thru a first quarter in 22.52 seconds. Despite this disadvantage pace scenario this ridging was able to do split rivals through the stretch to get up for second behind the 4-5 favored winner. He was sent off at odds of 21-1 when he stretched back out to one mile in the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile and with an excellent ground saving ride and trip by jockey Corey Nakatini this horse able to garner his first Grade I victory running down a top class horse in the now retired Karelian. Breaking from post position two he was able to go over towards the rail going to the first turn and saved ground through the first six furlongs as Mr. Gruff established a crisp early pace of 46.05 for half mile and six furlongs in 1:09.20 seconds. He was taken three wide entering the stretch and ran down Karelian to win by a head covering his final quarter of a mile in 23.14 seconds. Before being retired Karelian had won the Tampa Bay Stakes defeating subsequent Grade 1 Man O’ War winner and last year’s Eclipse Award older and turf male Gio Ponti. Also he won the Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile at Keeneland. Next to defeating a top rival the strength of Shoemaker Mile was validated as the sixth-place finisher Global Hunter returned to win the Grade 2 American Handicap in his next start. He returns from a seven week layoff with consecutive work outs including an easy five furlong move over the Del Mar turf course in 1:02.3 on July 19 that was maintenance move for this horse. With Acclimation fleeing post position four to go straight for the lead with Enriched not too far away and The Usual Q.T tracking that pair before commencing his move into the far turn that will allow Victor’s Cry to bide his time ahead of Loup Breton and get first run towards the quarter pole and unleash that late kick. Jockey Corey Nakatini won this race last year with Global Hunter and we will see if can go back to back at another price.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (2) VICTOR’S CRY to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 7-2 or better)
Main Exacta Boxes: 2-3 and 2-5
Race 9: Claiming $12,500 to $10,500, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and mares
ASH FORK (#7, 8-1) is a three-year old Rocky Bar filly that will be making her second start at this condition and dropping from two open claiming events into this restricted level. The dark bay or brown filly exit’s a pair of below average claiming events in her last two starts at Hollywood Park finishing third in a $20,000 claiming event on May 27 and came back to split the field in fifth on June 24. In the former event she had no real excuse tiring to finish third beaten two lengths at odds of 9-1 in a race that earned par figure of 90. In that race he was able to coast to the early lead and establish a sensible early pace through a first quarter mile in 22.45 seconds and sped through a half mile in a leisurely 45.89 seconds. She was tackled Miss Olivia K at mid stretch and weaken in the final furlong to third losing by two lengths. She dropped one more level on June 24 and managed to split her field crossing the wire fifth in another below average race for the level (Performance Rating 87). However the subsequent performances of the horses in that race prove that race was a lot stronger than the final time speed figure would indicate. In that race she was out run for the early lead and settled in mid pack saving ground in sixth as Blind Optimism was able to get away with a first quarter in 22.31 seconds. She continued saving ground on the far turn, angled out two wide entering the stretch and lacked a rally to finish in mid pack beaten five and a quarter lengths. Despite the below average speed figure the race has proven to be a very productive event. The winner, Frequent Fame, returned on July 18 to win for $20,000 claiming level. The third-place finisher Pretty Kinzie returned on July 2 to win by a length for $10,000 claiming price. Lastly the sixth place finisher Warren’s Swap Fox returned on July 22 here at Del Mar and won for a $16,000 claiming level. As you can see the performances of the winner and two also ran in the field make this a “key” race. This Arizona bred filly has come back with a maintenance half mile move in 48.1 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington commented “On own for Mullins working a maintenance 1/2 mile in 24.0, 48.1. Looking for level around here.” Though she is winless in three starts at this six furlong distance she does have a versatile running style as she broke her maiden contesting the early pace or sitting just off the early pace and in a field that does not have a plethora of early speed look for this filly to sit on or near modest early fractions. Exiting the best race, dropping into this restricted class level, and having the necessary tactical speed to sit close and pounce makes ASH FORK our best long shot bet on the first Saturday program of Del Mar.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (7) ASH FORK to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 6-1 or better)
Main Exactas: 7-2, 7-5, 7-6. Small reverse for each.
Del Mar Race 6 Pick 3
Race 6: (9) U R All That I Am, (10) LILLY FA POOTZ, (11) Restless Soul
Race 7: (4) Rock So Hard, (7) PRAYER FOR RELIEF , (9) Just Imagine
Race 8: (2) VICTOR’S CRY, (3) The Usual Q.T, (5) Loup Breton
Ticket 1: 10 / 4, 7, 9 / 2, 3, 5 = 1 x 3 x 3 x $1 = $9
Ticket 2: 9, 10, 11 / 7 / 2, 3, 5 = 3 x 1 x 3 x $1 = $9
Ticket 3: 9, 10, 11 / 4, 7, 9 / 2 = 3 x 3 x 1 x $1 = $9
Total Wager: $27
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)